Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes

Date

2016-12-12

Author

Bucak, Tuba
Trolle, Denise
Andersen, Hans
Todsen, Hans
Erdoğan, Şeyda
Levi, Eti
Filiz, Nur
Jeppesen, Erik
Beklioğlu, Meryem

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Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyșehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyșehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (∊-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ∊-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/76335
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC21D1127B/abstract

Conference Name

AGU Fall Meeting, 2016

Collections

Department of Biology, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

T. Bucak et al., “Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes,” presented at the AGU Fall Meeting, 2016, San-Francisco, Kostarika, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/76335.