Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes

Date

2016-12-12

Author

Bucak, Tuba
Trolle, Denise
Andersen, Hans
Todsen, Hans
Erdoğan, Şeyda
Levi, Eti
Filiz, Nur
Jeppesen, Erik
Beklioğlu, Meryem

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

114
views

0
downloads

Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyșehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyșehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (∊-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ∊-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water sources are vitally important to sustain lake ecosystems and their ecosystem services.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/76335
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC21D1127B/abstract

Conference Name

AGU Fall Meeting, 2016

Collections

Department of Biology, Conference / Seminar

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdogan, Seyda; Levi, Eti E.; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem (2017-03-01) Inter-and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beysehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranea...
Evaluation of eutrophication control strategies for the Keban Dam reservoir Soyupak, S; Mukhallalati, L; Yemisen, D; Bayar, A; Yurteri, C (1997-04-15) The reservoir of the Keban Dam in eastern Anatolia is a very deep and large water body subject to significant seasonal water level fluctuations within a given hydrological year. At the present time, different sections of the reservoir have different trophic status and the upper portion of the reservoir, in particular, is eutrophic. In this regard, there is a need for the assessment of alternative strategies to be implemented for phosphorus and thus eutrophication control in this segment of the reservoir. In...
Responses of the stratified flows to their driving conditions-A field study YÜKSEL, Yalçın; AYAT AYDOĞAN, Berna; Ozturk, Mehmet Nuri; Aydogan, Burak; Güler, Işıkhan; Cevik, Esin Ozkan; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2008-09-01) The Bosphorus is oceanographically very complicated two-layer stratified strait where denser water from the Marmara Sea flows towards North under the lighter water which is frequently flowing from the Black Sea towards South. The water level difference between both ends of the Bosphorus varies seasonally within the range of -0.2 and 0.6 m. The seasonal variability depends mainly on the water level changes in the adjacent basins related to the hydrological cycle, short-term changes in the atmospheric pressur...
Spatial and temporal variability in the chemical properties of the oxic and suboxic layers of the Black Sea Tuğrul, Süleyman; Murray, James W.; Friederich, Gernot E.; Salihoglu, Ilkay (Elsevier BV, 2014-07-01) The Black Sea, a land-locked deep basin with sulfide bearing waters below 150-200 m, has been subject to anthropogenic pressures since the 1970s. Large inputs of nutrients (nitrate - N, phosphate - P, silicate - Si) with high N/P but low Si/N ratios and subsequent development of intensive eutrophication over the basin have changed vertical distributions and inventories of nutrients and redox-sensitive metals in the oxic, suboxic and anoxic layers. Chemical data sets obtained between 1988 and 2010, and older...
Design of settling basins and related problems encountered in practice Zaloğlu, Fatma Deniz; Göğüş, Mustafa; Department of Civil Engineering (2013) Settling basins are the hydraulic structures used to get sediment-free water from rivers mostly for hydropower systems. Mainly fine sediment is trapped along the settling basins and from time to time the accumulated sediment in the settling basin is flushed away. A wrong design of a settling basin creates lots of problems. In this study based on the hydraulic analysis of a settling basin, the available settling basin design procedures in the literature were reviewed. Some of the settling basins constructed ...

Citation Formats

T. Bucak et al., “Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes,” presented at the AGU Fall Meeting, 2016, San-Francisco, Kostarika, 2016, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/76335.