Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model

Date

2017-03-01

Author

Bucak, Tuba
Trolle, Dennis
Andersen, Hans Estrup
Thodsen, Hans
Erdogan, Seyda
Levi, Eti E.
Filiz, Nur
Jeppesen, Erik
Beklioğlu, Meryem

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

184
views

0
downloads

Inter-and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beysehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - threatened by climatic changes and over abstraction of water for irrigated crop farming. Therefore, implementation of Strict water level management policies is required. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to predict the future Water levels of Lake Beysehir in response to potential future changes in climate and land use. Water level estimation was performed by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Regression model (epsilon-SVR). The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation based-on the climate change models led to an enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. On the other hand, the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment appeared to be comparatively insignificant. According to the epsilon-SVR model results, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction for all scenarios. Moreover, the MPI-ESM-MR General Circulation Model outputs produced the most dramatic results by predicting that Lake Beysehir may dry out by the 2040s with the current outflow regime. The results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and losing their ecosystem values in the near future if the current intensity of water abstraction is not reduced. In addition, the results also demonstrate that outflow management and sustainable use of water sources are vital to sustain lake ecosystems in water-limited regions.

Subject Keywords

Epsilon-SVR, Climate change, Water level, Land use, Drying out, Outflow

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38413

Journal

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/jscitotenv2016.12.149

Collections

Department of Biology, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Denise; Andersen, Hans; Todsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem (2016-12-12) Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyșehir, the largest f...
Assessment of the impacts of future climatic variations and anthropogenic activities on Burdur Lake levels Kılıç Germeç, Hatice; Yazıcıgil, Hasan; Department of Geological Engineering (2023-1-24) Lake water levels naturally fluctuate due to imbalances in water inputs and outputs. However, lake hydrologic regimes may be altered by the impacts of climatic factors and human interventions, as in Burdur Lake. The Burdur Lake level has continuously decreased since the beginning of the 1970s. In this study, in order to quantify the loss/gain relationship between the aquifer and the Burdur Lake and specify the potential causes and consequences for the lake level decline, a 3-D numerical groundwater flow mod...
Impact of alternating wet and dry periods on long-term seasonal phosphorus and nitrogen budgets of two shallow Mediterranean lakes Coppens, Jan; ÖZEN, ARDA; Tavsanoglu, U. Nihan; Erdogan, Seyda; Levi, Eti E.; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem (2016-09-01) The water balance, with large seasonal and annual water level fluctuations, has a critical influence on the nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics of shallow lakes in the semi-arid climate zone. We constructed seasonal water and nutrient budgets for two connected shallow lakes, Lakes Mogan and Eymir, located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The study period covered 20 years with alternations between dry and wet years as well as restoration efforts including sewage effluent diversion and biomanipulations in Lake Eymir...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Turkish Water Resources: A Review Yılmaz, Koray Kamil; Yazıcıgil, Hasan (2010-09-04) Water resources are mainly controlled by the climate conditions. Global warming will therefore have evolving impacts on water resources and poses important challenges for sustainable development. Studies are rapidly emerging with focus on potential implications of climate change on Turkish water resources. These studies can be grouped into two major fields: (1) Studies investigating the degree of climate change reflected in the past observed hydro-meteorological records, and (2) studies investigating potent...
Stream flow variability and drought severity in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Liu, Dong; Fu, Qiang; Uzair, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Baig, Faisal; Li, Tianxiao; Cui, Song (2018-05-01) A slight variation in the magnitude of stream flow can have a substantial influence on the development of water resources. The Songhua River Basin (SRB) serves as a major grain commodity basin and is located in the northeastern region of China. Recent studies have identified a gradual decrease in stream flows, which presents a serious risk to water resources of the region. It is therefore necessary to assess the variation in stream flow and to predict the future of stream flows and droughts to make a compre...

Citation Formats

T. Bucak et al., “Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model,” SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, pp. 413–425, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/38413.