The Effect of Macro-Economic Factors on Housing Markets: US Case

Yılmaz, Bilgi
Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe
The real estate market is one of the leading and locomotive markets in national economies due to its high dependence on domestic capital, its creation of high added value, the magnitude of its employment potential, and the strong relation to the other markets. And the housing market is one of the biggest submarket of real estate market and it is a massive factor in householder’s consumption; therefore, it is one of the biggest components in the basket of goods used for calculating the consumer price index (CPI) in most of the industrialized countries. Therefore, this paper aims to determine the influence of the dynamic effects of specific macroeconomic variables (i.e. mortgage rates, inflation, and unemployment) on the house price indices, with particularly on the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for the United States (U.S.) housing market. In the determination, we used the novel regression methods: the generalized linear regression (GLM) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Our models allow for the interactions among the independent variables and they are consistent with U.S. data for the period 2000 to 2015.
Citation Formats
B. Yılmaz and S. A. Kestel, “The Effect of Macro-Economic Factors on Housing Markets: US Case,” presented at the IRSYSC 2017 – 3RD INTERNATIONAL RESEARCHERS, STATISTICIANS AND YOUNG STATISTICIANS CONGRESS, Konya, Türkiye, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: