From Seismic Sources to Engineering Demand Parameters: An Interdisciplinary Framework for Estimation of Seismic Losses in Urban Regions

Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül
Erberik, Murat Altuğ
Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh
Kilic, Nazan
Sisman, Fatma Nurten
Yakut, Ahmet
Risk mitigation in urban regions starts with identification of potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Estimation of seismic losses concerns a wide range of authorities varying from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies while the process naturally involves inputs from multiple disciplines. In this study, we present a city-level model where potential seismic losses are expressed in terms of regional seismic hazard, local soil conditions and local building vulnerabilities. The main components of the study are probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of potential ground motions, regional building vulnerability, fragility information, and loss functions. As the study area, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault zone is selected. Located within a triple conjunction of major fault systems within a basin structure, and experienced two major events within the last century in 1939 (Ms=8.0) and in 1992 (Mw=6.6), this city has significant hazard potential. We present the results in terms of key components such as construction of a 2D velocity model, ground motion simulations of past earthquakes and scenario events, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and fragility functions derived using regional building characteristics along with simulated regional ground motion data. The verification of the model is performed through comparisons of estimated mean damage ratios for the 1992 earthquake with the corresponding observed values. The consistency of the estimated and observed values points out the significance of using locally-derived models for every component of loss estimation process.


An Interdisciplinary Approach for Regional Seismic Damage Estimation
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Yakut, Ahmet (2017-01-09)
In order to mitigate seismic risk in urban regions, the first task is to identify potential seismic losses in future earthquakes. Seismic loss estimation is an interdisciplinary framework including a wide range of contributions from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. In this study, a moderate size city in Turkey, namely Erzincan, is modeled completely from geophysical attributes to the built environment. Erzincan city is on the eastern part of the No...
Assessment of seismic hazard in the Erzincan (Turkey) region: construction of local velocity models and evaluation of potential ground motions
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Sisman, Fatma Nurten; Erkmen, Cenk (2015-01-01)
The fundamental step in estimation of seismic damage and losses in urban areas is identification of regional potential seismic hazard. The accuracy of seismic analyses depends on the reliability of the local input parameters used in the corresponding hazard and loss models. This paper presents detailed seismic hazard analyses for an earthquake-prone region using locally derived source and site parameters. Main components of this study are construction of local seismic velocity models, probabilistic and dete...
A screening procedure for seismic risk assessment in urban building stocks
Sucuoğlu, Haluk; Yakut, Ahmet (SAGE Publications, 2007-05-01)
An effective step for seismic risk mitigation in large urban areas under high seismic risk is to identify the most vulnerable buildings that may sustain significant damage during a future earthquake. Once they are identified properly, existing seismic risks may be reduced either by retrofitting such buildings, or by replacing them with new buildings in view of a particular risk-mitigation planning strategy. A fast and simple seismic risk-assessment procedure for vulnerable urban building stocks is proposed ...
Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül (2018-09-02)
The first step in estimation of seismic losses in urban areas is the assessment of regional seismic hazard. The source and local site parameters determine the accuracy of the hazard model. Using locally derived input parameters in site response modeling and hazard analyses, the earthquake potential of Zeytinburnu region in Istanbul is investigated in detail. In this study, two alternative source models including area and fault (line) sources are considered in the hazard computations. Analyses are init...
Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan, Turkey
Karim Zadeh Naghshineh, Shaghayegh; Askan Gündoğan, Ayşegül; Erberik, Murat Altuğ; Yakut, Ahmet (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018-07-01)
Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodolo...
Citation Formats
A. Askan Gündoğan, M. A. Erberik, S. Karimzadeh, N. Kilic, F. N. Sisman, and A. Yakut, “From Seismic Sources to Engineering Demand Parameters: An Interdisciplinary Framework for Estimation of Seismic Losses in Urban Regions,” presented at the 2nd International Workshop on Best Practices in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations: Issues and Challenges towards full Seismic Risk Analysis, Cadarache, France, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: