An Experimental Study on Impact of Risk Data Visualization onRisk Evaluations

2018-11-18
Dikmen Toker, İrem
Yıldız, Açelya Ecem
Eken, Görkem
Özbakan, Tolga
Risk assessment is a systematic process to characterize and evaluate risk, with the available knowledge. Thus, its success depends significantly on the "availability of knowledge" during the assessment process. The knowledge elicitation from experts, the structure of the risk database and information visualization that may help sense-making from previous projects are critical factors that can improve risk assessment process. Risk assessment is usually carried out at the start of a project and updated during the project in order to understand the level of risk, predict their impacts on project objectives and take necessary mitigation actions. Thus, the success of risk assessment is critical for decisions regarding the estimation of cost and duration, determination of contingency, selection of construction methods, determining contract strategy and preparation of risk management plans. In this paper, it is argued that risk-informed decision-making can be improved by utilisation of risk data visualization during risk assessment. An experimental study has been conducted to explore how risk data and visual aids may improve the quality of risk evaluations of experts during a risk assessment workshop. Experts are requested to evaluate risks associated with a real construction project first by using only their subjective judgements, then by utilising a risk database and finally, by referring to the visual representations of risk data provided. The risk database involves previous project data as well as pre-project and post-project risk evaluations. Results demonstrate that risk-related data and its visualization may improve the risk assessment process. Although, results of this study cannot be generalized for all risk-informed decision-making problems, lessons learned from this study has a potential to be used to design effective risk assessment workshops and improve knowledge elicitation from experts in construction companies.
Citation Formats
İ. Dikmen Toker, A. E. Yıldız, G. Eken, and T. Özbakan, “An Experimental Study on Impact of Risk Data Visualization onRisk Evaluations,” presented at the 5th International project and construction management conference,(16 - 18 Kasım 2018, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87934.