An Experimental Study on Impact of Risk Data Visualization onRisk Evaluations

2018-11-18
Risk assessment is a systematic process to characterize and evaluate risk, with the available knowledge. Thus, its success depends significantly on the "availability of knowledge" during the assessment process. The knowledge elicitation from experts, the structure of the risk database and information visualization that may help sense-making from previous projects are critical factors that can improve risk assessment process. Risk assessment is usually carried out at the start of a project and updated during the project in order to understand the level of risk, predict their impacts on project objectives and take necessary mitigation actions. Thus, the success of risk assessment is critical for decisions regarding the estimation of cost and duration, determination of contingency, selection of construction methods, determining contract strategy and preparation of risk management plans. In this paper, it is argued that risk-informed decision-making can be improved by utilisation of risk data visualization during risk assessment. An experimental study has been conducted to explore how risk data and visual aids may improve the quality of risk evaluations of experts during a risk assessment workshop. Experts are requested to evaluate risks associated with a real construction project first by using only their subjective judgements, then by utilising a risk database and finally, by referring to the visual representations of risk data provided. The risk database involves previous project data as well as pre-project and post-project risk evaluations. Results demonstrate that risk-related data and its visualization may improve the risk assessment process. Although, results of this study cannot be generalized for all risk-informed decision-making problems, lessons learned from this study has a potential to be used to design effective risk assessment workshops and improve knowledge elicitation from experts in construction companies.
5th International project and construction management conference,(16 - 18 Kasım 2018

Suggestions

Incorporating sustainability in risk assessment of construction projects
Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (null; 2017-11-27)
There are standard procedures proposed for risk management (RM) such as “ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines” that provides principles, framework and a process for managing risk. However, RM is still among the most popular research topics in project management domain as there is a lack of consensus on the definition of risk as well as the contextual factors affecting its level. Many authors argue that although complexity, vulnerability, uncertai...
A risk management approach for acquisition of software intensive systems in the Turkish Army.
Saylan, Necip; Demirös, Elif; Demirös, Onur; Department of Information Systems (2002)
The current techniques of risk assessment rely on checklists and human expertise. This constitutes a rigorous approach only when the people are experts on risk assessment. This thesis introduces a formal method and addresses the necessity of the identification and analysis of the risk. During implementation of risk management process, risk assessment will be discussed within an acquisition of software intensive systems in the Turkish Army. This thesis includes a survey and comparison of other software risk ...
ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLIER RISK FOR COPPER PROCUREMENT
Buzdogan-Lindenmayr, Ezgi; Kara, Guray; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe (2019-01-01)
Procurement risk management (PRM) requires a good understanding and assessment of all potential risks. As the procurement industry mostly functions globally and the supply-demand chain forms a dependency structure among all interested parties, the quantification of risks related to the suppliers gain importance. This study presents a systematic PRM to evaluate and quantify the risks of a commodity associated to its suppliers. The probabilistic set up using total probability theorem on the information collec...
A classification problem of credit risk rating investigated and solved by optimisation of the ROC curve
Kurum, Efsun; Yildirak, Kasirga; Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm (2012-09-01)
Estimation of probability of default has considerable importance in risk management applications where default risk is referred to as credit risk. Basel II (Committee on Banking Supervision) proposes a revision to the international capital accord that implies a more prominent role for internal credit risk assessments based on the determination of default probability of borrowers. In our study, we classify borrower firms into rating classes with respect to their default probability. The classification of fir...
Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling
Eybpoosh, Matineh; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2011-12-01)
The major aim of this research is to demonstrate that causal relationships exist among various risk factors that necessitate identification of risk paths, rather than individual risk factors, during risk assessment of construction projects. International construction projects have more complex risk-emergence patterns because they are affected by global and foreign country conditions and project-related factors. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse vulne...
Citation Formats
İ. Dikmen Toker and G. Eken, “An Experimental Study on Impact of Risk Data Visualization onRisk Evaluations,” presented at the 5th International project and construction management conference,(16 - 18 Kasım 2018, 2018, Accessed: 00, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/87934.