Time Series Modeling and Drought Frequency Analysis for the Annual Rainfall of North Cyprus

Download

MSc Thesis_Nazlıcan Yücel.pdf

Date

2021-9

Author

Yücel, Nazlıcan

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

617
views

140
downloads

Cyprus which is the third biggest island in the Mediterranean Sea is located in the south of Turkey. The island has a semi-arid climate The rainfall is the main source of the island, therefore, the analysis of existing rainfall data across the island has vital importance for a better sustainable water resource management. In this study, annual rainfall data of 33 meteorological stations across North Cyprus were used. The main objectives of the study are modeling the annual observed rainfall of North Cyprus by using ARIMA models and finding the return period of the most critical historical drought events by using ARIMA models. As a result, low order ARIMA models were generally found suitable for North Cyprus annual rainfall data. Also, for average annual North Cyprus rainfall, the return period of the most severe drought event with severity of 406.3 mm, was found as 63 years. For the four sub-regions of North Cyprus namely, the West part of North Cyprus, North Coast and Mesaria Plain, Central Mesaria Plain, and West Coast and Karpas Peninsula, the return periods of the most severe droughts with the severity of 572.4 mm, 319.5 mm, 319.8 mm, and 555.1 mm, were obtained as 137 years, 26 years, 40 years, and 116 years, respectively. These results will be very beneficial for the sustainable water resource management of North Cyprus. Important precautions can be taken to minimize the devastating effects of climate change by the related government authorities.

Subject Keywords

ARIMA, Rainfall, North Cyprus, Sustainable Water Resource Management, Drought Frequency Analysis

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/94265

Collections

Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Integrated Watershed Management for Lake Mogan with the focus of Agricultural Diffuse Pollution Özcan, Zeynep; Başkan, O; Düzgün, Hafize Şebnem; Kentel, Elçin; Alp, Emre (2015-09-25) Lake Mogan located 20 km south of Ankara, Turkey has a watershed area of 970 km2, and it is dominated by areas with dry agricultural practices (50%) and graze lands (31%). Intense agricultural activities and fast urbanization rates are the most important factors affecting the water quality in Lake Mogan. There has been several management alternatives suggested to improve the water quality in Lake Mogan. In 2008, the municipality implemented lake augmentation strategy to increase the water level since it dro...
Dinoflagellate cyst biostratigraphy of Miocene strata in the Adana Basin, Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey Turkecan, Aksel Tugba; Munsterman, Dirk; Isik, Ugras; Altıner, Demir; Pinar, Mehtap; Cevik, Tugba; Alay, Zeynep (Informa UK Limited, 2018-01-01) The Adana Basin is one of the major Neogene basins situated in SW Turkey with sedimentary successions providing good records of the paleoenvironmental changes that affected the Mediterranean area. Since a detailed biochronostratigraphic framework has not been properly established in the Adana Basin yet, this study will be the first multidisciplinary approach carried out in this region. In addition, a detailed biozonation based on marine palynomorphs was the first ever documented from the Kopekli Formation d...
Diagenetic and very low-grade metamorphic characteristics of the Paleozoic series of the Istanbul Terrane (NW Turkey) Bozkaya, Omer; YALÇIN, HÜSEYİN; Göncüoğlu, Mehmet Cemal (2012-07-01) The Istanbul Terrane along the Black Sea coast in NW Anatolia, is a Gondwana-derived continental microplate, comprising a well-developed Paleozoic succession. Petrographic and X-ray diffraction studies were performed on rock samples from measured sections throughout Ordovician-Carboniferous sedimentary units. Diagenetic-very low-grade metamorphic clastic (shale/mudstone, siltstone, sandstone) and calcareous rocks (limestone, dolomite) mainly contain phyllosilicates, quartz, feldspar, calcite, dolomite, hema...
Spatial variations of active stress patterns and frequencymagnitude distribution of earthquakes in Western Anatolia, Turkey Shah, S Tanvir; Özacar, Atilla Arda (null; 2018-04-23) Western Anatolia is one of the most important tectonic elements of Turkey, and constitutes the eastern margin of Aegean Extensional Province. The area is one of the most seismically active continental margins around the globe experiencing N-S extension. Earthquake data in this study is used to analyze the active stress patterns and to estimate the earthquake return periods for different sub-regions in western Anatolia. Focal mechanism solution data is used for determining the orientations and ratios of prin...
A review of plastic pollution in aquatic ecosystems of Turkey Çevik, Cem ; Kıdeyş, Ahmet Erkan; Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan ; Kankılıç, Gökben Başaran ; Gündoğdu, Sedat (2021-12-01) Turkey is one of the major plastic pollution sources in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This review summarizes present information, data, and legislation on plastic pollution in Turkish aquatic ecosystems. According to results derived from reviewed studies, both macro- and microplastic pollutions were documented in Turkish aquatic ecosystems. Most of the studies on plastic pollution in Turkish waters were performed in the marine environment while only four were conducted in freshwater environments. Spa...

Citation Formats

N. Yücel, “Time Series Modeling and Drought Frequency Analysis for the Annual Rainfall of North Cyprus,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2021.