Land use / land cover change detection and the impacts of territorial development plans on the change in muğla

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2022-2-09

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Ertunç, Övünç

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Forests play a vital role in balancing atmospheric carbon dioxide and thereby diminish the pace of global climate change. Agriculture fights against extreme poverty and feeds a projected 9.7 billion people world population by 2050. Although these natural and agricultural lands are so important for now and the future, they have been shrinking all around the world, especially in developing countries. As in some other developing countries, many metropolitan cities face Land Use (LU)/Land Cover (LC) change in Turkey. Muğla is one of the critical cases because of its unprecedented natural assets leading the development of the tourism and the mining sectors. This thesis aims to analyze the spatio-temporal changes in LU/LC elements from 1995 to 2021 and the possible impacts of the current Territorial Development Plan on these changes in Muğla. Firstly, satellite images for change analysis are classified by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation with five classes which are forest, sparse vegetation, water bodies, agriculture, and built environment. Then, thematic maps representing LU/LC change from 1995 to 2015 in Muğla are created. To observe the possible impacts of the current Territorial Development Plan, a satellite image in 2021 is classified, and a thematic map representing the LU/LC change from 2005 to 2021 is generated. According to the thematic maps, 11 Regions of Interest (ROIs) are determined from where the changes are seen the most. Lastly, the Territorial Development Plan in the ROIs is examined. Results show that Muğla has experienced a serious deterioration in land cover elements, even with an increasing pace. An important reason for these changes is that the majority of the LU/LC change is determined by the current Territorial Development Plan. Moreover, the plan has gaps in the representation of ongoing mining activities. Indeed, land cover elements should be conserved through both spatial allocations and strong planning decisions at any scale for sustainable futures.

Subject Keywords

Muğla, Land use land cover, Territorial development plan, Change detection, Maximum likelihood

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/96731

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

Ö. Ertunç, “Land use / land cover change detection and the impacts of territorial development plans on the change in muğla,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.