A data-driven approach for predicting solar energy potential of buildings in urban fabric

Duran, Ayça
Energy-efficient buildings that use clean and sustainable energy sources are urgently needed to reduce the environmental impact of buildings and mitigate climate change in cities. Buildings have great potential in harvesting solar energy by their solar exposure capacity. Developments in PV technologies also encourage the integration of PV systems into architectural applications. However, urban contexts can limit solar energy generation capacity of buildings by shading building envelopes and reducing available space for building-integrated PV (BIPV) deployment. Urban scale analyses are needed to understand the impact of urban form on solar energy generation potential. Nevertheless, urban scale analyses require tedious modeling and expertise, which may not be available during building design development or post-occupancy. This thesis presents a data-driven approach for predicting BIPV generation per façade and roof surface area utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques. As a first step, a simulation-based data generation method is applied to four neighborhoods in Ankara, representing different street network patterns. Three ML models are utilized and trained with simulation outputs. Two groups of predictors, simple and complex, are formed to allow predictions in various contexts. Overall, the best prediction model for facades has an R2 value of 0.98 and nRMSE of 10.83%. For roofs, R2 and nRMSE could reach up to 0.94 and 3.13%, respectively. Complex predictors offer better prediction performances, whereas basic predictors enable the prediction of BIPV potential independent of a 3D model. Varieties observed in prediction performances for different neighborhoods also imply the need for urban morphology inclusive approaches in predicting BIPV potential.


Parametric analysis of BIM-based building energy performance for supporting multi-objective optimization
Can, Esra; Akçamete Güngör, Aslı; Department of Civil Engineering (2022-5-11)
Building energy efficiency comes into prominence as buildings constitute a significant portion of world energy consumption and CO2 emissions. To achieve energy-efficient buildings, energy performance assessments should be conducted meticulously, yet it is difficult to comprehensively estimate the buildings’ energy consumption since energy performance assessments are complex multi-criteria problems that are affected by many factors such as building orientation, envelope design, climatic conditions, daylight ...
YILMAZ, DERYA; Tanyer, Ali Murat; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Department of Architecture (2022-7)
The energy performance gap presents obstacles for governments to reduce dependency on foreign energy sources, as well as for policymakers to be successful in future ambitions about reducing the environmental impacts of buildings. Although considerable research focused on the reasons, reduction, or quantification of the energy performance gap in buildings, little attention has been given in the past to methods that would inform decision makers about a likely performance gap. Such studies could change the act...
Literature review on BIM-based building energy performance optimization
Can, Esra; Akçamete Güngör, Aslı (İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi; 2020-11-14)
Buildings comprise a large part of global energy consumption and make a significant contribution to overall CO2 emissions in the world. Therefore, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings becomes a priority to reduce these undesirable effects. Building energy performance assessments are complex multi-criteria problems as the energy performance is affected by many factors such as building orientation, envelope design, climate conditions, daylighting levels, and HVAC system usage schedules. This complica...
An Energy and Economic Comparison of Building Envelope Types in Ankara
Shorbagı, Mustafa Ibrahım; Çakmaklı, Ayşem Berrin (null; 2015-05-30)
One aim of sustainable design may be, “to protect important resources such as energy from depletion and the reduction of the release of poisonous gasses, such as CO2 , to the atmosphere”. For this purpose, buildings which are a major cause of energy resource wastage must be designed in such a way to avoid such energy losses. In developing countries like Turkey, where much energy is exported to satisfy her needs, necessary methods of energy reduction were required. Thus regulations such as the TS 825 (Turkis...
TASDEMIROGLU, E; ARINC, F (Elsevier BV, 1988-01-01)
The necessity for technical-economic analysis of solar energy systems is obvious when assessing their feasibility vis-á-vis conventional alternative systems. Optimum magnitudes of the installation parameters should be defined under the required economic conditions. In this study, the optimization procedure was chosen so as to maximize the total accumulated saving throughout the economic lifetime of the system. The annual solar heating fraction of the system is assessed using the f-chart method which can be ...
Citation Formats
A. Duran, “A data-driven approach for predicting solar energy potential of buildings in urban fabric,” M.Arch. - Master of Architecture, Middle East Technical University, 2022.