ANALYZING THE COMBINED IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF JHELUM RIVER BASIN IN KASHMIR

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2022-7

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Hamid, Injila

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In terms of efficient and sustainable management of water resources of a basin, land use land cover (LULC) and climate change impact studies hold utmost importance. Land use change dynamics along with the climate change owing to greenhouse gas emissions are altering the hydrological response of river basins. This study therefore focuses on quantifying the combined impact of LULC and climate change on the water balance components of the Jhelum river basin using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. In the analysis, SWAT-CUP (SUFI-2 algorithm) was employed to calibrate and validate the model using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) as the objective function. Model performance was evaluated using statistical parameters such as R2, NSE, PBIAS and KGE that demonstrated satisfactory results. Future projections of climate change using bias corrected NorESM1-M model have also been utilized in this study under medium emission RCP 4.5 and high emission RCP 8.5 radiative forcing to estimate the changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation during mid (2041 – 2070) and end of the 21st century (2071 – 2100) in the Jhelum river basin. Moreover, projected future hydrological response of the basin as a result of this climate change has been quantified in terms of the changes exhibited by the water balance components of the basin using SWAT model.

Subject Keywords

LULC, Hydrological Modeling, SWAT, SUFI-2, Jhelum River Basin

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/98563

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Northern Cyprus Campus, Thesis

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Citation Formats

I. Hamid, “ANALYZING THE COMBINED IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE OF JHELUM RIVER BASIN IN KASHMIR,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.