Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine

2022-09-01
Al-Najjar, Hassan
Purnama, Anton
Özkan, Korhan
Abualtayef, Mazen
In the eastern Mediterranean region of the Middle East and North Africa, pluvial flooding has become a common and severe climate change consequence event that requires immediate attention. The Wadi-Gaza basin is a critical source of surface water in Palestine; nevertheless, climate change and anthropogenic processes are altering the basin's hydrological features, resulting in a series of extreme and disastrous flooding events in the coastal plain at the basin downstream. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and the IPTA method that was used to analyze historical rainfall in the basin from 1979 to 2013 refer to a declining trend pattern, which reduces the surge of runoff discharge. Moreover, the future projection for the total monthly rainfall under the ensemble model of CIMP5 for the RCP scenarios of 2.60, 4.50, and 8.50 demonstrate a general decreasing trend in the rainfall with a variation ranging between about - 36 and - 53%. The frequency analysis for the maximum daily rainfall using different computing approaches shows that the theoretical maximum rainfall values for the assessment of flooding events were assigned to 22, 31, 35, 45 52, 59, 66, and 77 mm for the whole basin for the return periods (T) of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. The land cover-land use of the basin shows that 51% is barren land while the other portion is divided between urban (similar to 16%), agricultural (similar to 13%), and natural (similar to 20%) lands. However, the type of soil that covers the basin is classified mainly as clay, loam, and sandy clay. According to the hydraulic analysis of downstream flooding, the volume of surge water that might reach the coastal plain in the event of water storms of 22 and 77 mm is around 6 and 118 million cubic meters, respectively. The area at risk of inundation due to floods in the Wadi-Gaza is between 3 and 17 km(2), covering around 5-29 percent of the Gaza Strip's middle governorate area, respectively.
ACTA GEOPHYSICA

Suggestions

Analyses of flood events using regional hydrometeorological modeling system
Önen, Alper; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2013)
Extreme rainfall events and consequent floods are being observed more frequently in the Western Black Sea region in Turkey as climate changes. In this study, application of a flood early warning system is intended by using and calibrating a combined model system. A regional-scale hydro-meteorological model system, consisting of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOAH land surface model and fully distributed NOAH-Hydro hydrologic models, is used for simulations of 25 heavy-rainfall and major flood...
Modelling long term morphological changes with XBeach case study of Kizilirmak River mouth
Baykal, Cüneyt; Güler, Işıkhan; Özyurt, Gülizar; Söğüt, Erdinç; Güler, Hasan Gökhan; Doğan, Gözde Güney (2015-04-17)
The Bafra alluvial plain, where the Kızılırmak River discharges into the Black Sea, is one of the most critical examples of severe coastal erosion problems in Turkey. The amount of sediment carried by the Kızılırmak River has decreased from approximately 23 million ton per year to 0.46 million tons/year starting from 1960s as a result of construction of flow regulatory structures in the following years. This drastic decrease in the amount of sediment carried by the river resulted in a severe shoreline retre...
Evaluation of a Hydro-Meteorological Model System for Flood Forecasting of a Mediterranean Basin in Turkey
Kılıçarslan, Berina; Duzenli, Eren; Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (null; 2020-05-08)
Floods, which are considered as one of the most destructive extreme weather events, are being more severe issues with changing climate, and they are threatening both human life and property. To address flood hazard issues, this study evaluates the application of a hydro-meteorological model system as an early warning system approach. The Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological model system (WRF-Hydro), a fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic model, has the capability of accurately c...
Evaluation of tsunami scenarios for western Peloponnese, Greece
Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet; Dilmen, D. I.; Aytore, B.; Ayca, A.; Insel, I.; Zaytsev, A. (2014-06-01)
Tsunami hazard assessment of the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea is the current interest of the countries having, a coastline in this region. Considering today's increasing population on the coasts and historical tsunamis, it is essential to estimate the probable tsunami risk, which might occur, to be able to mitigate the risk before the actual tsunami event happens. For this purpose, European Union funded project., SEAHELLARC is formed to develop a methodology and tools for seismic and tsunami safety...
Determination of limited nutrients in the Turkish coastal waters of the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas
Tüfekçi, V; Kuzkaya, E; Tüfekçi, H; Avaz, G; Tuğrul, Süleyman (2013-01-01)
Increased human activities, rapid and uncontrolled industrial development, intensive urbanization have polluted and hence drastically modified the Turkish coastal water ecosystem of North East (NE) Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. Assessments of nutrient budgets and limiting nutrients in aquatic systems are of wide interest because of their fundamental importance in understanding carbon fixation, coastal eutrophication and wastewater management. In this study, the relative importance of nitrogen and phosphoru...
Citation Formats
H. Al-Najjar, A. Purnama, K. Özkan, and M. Abualtayef, “Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine,” ACTA GEOPHYSICA, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99330.