Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine

Date

2022-09-01

Author

Al-Najjar, Hassan
Purnama, Anton
Özkan, Korhan
Abualtayef, Mazen

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

225
views

0
downloads

In the eastern Mediterranean region of the Middle East and North Africa, pluvial flooding has become a common and severe climate change consequence event that requires immediate attention. The Wadi-Gaza basin is a critical source of surface water in Palestine; nevertheless, climate change and anthropogenic processes are altering the basin's hydrological features, resulting in a series of extreme and disastrous flooding events in the coastal plain at the basin downstream. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and the IPTA method that was used to analyze historical rainfall in the basin from 1979 to 2013 refer to a declining trend pattern, which reduces the surge of runoff discharge. Moreover, the future projection for the total monthly rainfall under the ensemble model of CIMP5 for the RCP scenarios of 2.60, 4.50, and 8.50 demonstrate a general decreasing trend in the rainfall with a variation ranging between about - 36 and - 53%. The frequency analysis for the maximum daily rainfall using different computing approaches shows that the theoretical maximum rainfall values for the assessment of flooding events were assigned to 22, 31, 35, 45 52, 59, 66, and 77 mm for the whole basin for the return periods (T) of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. The land cover-land use of the basin shows that 51% is barren land while the other portion is divided between urban (similar to 16%), agricultural (similar to 13%), and natural (similar to 20%) lands. However, the type of soil that covers the basin is classified mainly as clay, loam, and sandy clay. According to the hydraulic analysis of downstream flooding, the volume of surge water that might reach the coastal plain in the event of water storms of 22 and 77 mm is around 6 and 118 million cubic meters, respectively. The area at risk of inundation due to floods in the Wadi-Gaza is between 3 and 17 km(2), covering around 5-29 percent of the Gaza Strip's middle governorate area, respectively.

Subject Keywords

Palestine, Wadi-Gaza, Climate, Hydrology, Flooding, Mediterranean Sea, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CMIP5, PRECIPITATION, MODEL, IDENTIFICATION, MIDDLE

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99330

Journal

ACTA GEOPHYSICA

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00890-9

Collections

Graduate School of Marine Sciences, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Analyses of flood events using regional hydrometeorological modeling system Önen, Alper; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2013) Extreme rainfall events and consequent floods are being observed more frequently in the Western Black Sea region in Turkey as climate changes. In this study, application of a flood early warning system is intended by using and calibrating a combined model system. A regional-scale hydro-meteorological model system, consisting of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOAH land surface model and fully distributed NOAH-Hydro hydrologic models, is used for simulations of 25 heavy-rainfall and major flood...
Application of the SRM and SLURP models in eastern Turkey using remote sensing and geographic information systems Sorman, U; Uzunoglu, E; Kaya, HI (2000-04-07) Today, global climatic issues and the water security problems resulting from the increasing water demand for hydropower and agricultural purposes from the rivers Tigris and Euphrates, in the Middle East, are quite important. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was applied to the Karasu basin located in the upper Euphrates River drainage basin, in order to simulate and forecast the runoff from snow melting. A second study covered the application of the hydrological model SLURP-11 at a smaller scale. In combinati...
Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by NOAH Hydrological Model Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2016-10-01) Analysis of drought, which is classified as a natural disaster, is globally considering the damage it gives. As a result detection of its characteristics is essential for understanding and reducing the effects of this natural disaster and for imminent prediction. In this study, soil moisture estimates obtained from NOAH hydrological model and normalized difference vegetation index obtained from MODIS observations are used to analysis the recent droughts in Turkey. With the utilization of these parameters th...
Evaluation of a Hydro-Meteorological Model System for Flood Forecasting of a Mediterranean Basin in Turkey Kılıçarslan, Berina; Duzenli, Eren; Pilatin, Heves; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (null; 2020-05-08) Floods, which are considered as one of the most destructive extreme weather events, are being more severe issues with changing climate, and they are threatening both human life and property. To address flood hazard issues, this study evaluates the application of a hydro-meteorological model system as an early warning system approach. The Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological model system (WRF-Hydro), a fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic model, has the capability of accurately c...
Modelling long term morphological changes with XBeach case study of Kizilirmak River mouth Baykal, Cüneyt; Güler, Işıkhan; Özyurt, Gülizar; Söğüt, Erdinç; Güler, Hasan Gökhan; Doğan, Gözde Güney (2015-04-17) The Bafra alluvial plain, where the Kızılırmak River discharges into the Black Sea, is one of the most critical examples of severe coastal erosion problems in Turkey. The amount of sediment carried by the Kızılırmak River has decreased from approximately 23 million ton per year to 0.46 million tons/year starting from 1960s as a result of construction of flow regulatory structures in the following years. This drastic decrease in the amount of sediment carried by the river resulted in a severe shoreline retre...

Citation Formats

H. Al-Najjar, A. Purnama, K. Özkan, and M. Abualtayef, “Analysis of extreme rainfall trend and mapping of the Wadi pluvial flood in the Gaza coastal plain of Palestine,” ACTA GEOPHYSICA, pp. 0–0, 2022, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99330.