IDENTIFICATION OF EVACUATION ZONES BY SUPERPOSED HAZARD MAPPING METHOD IN CASE OF A HYPOTHETICAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT: THE CASE OF AKKUYU NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

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BensuDemiryay_Thesis_GGIT.pdf

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2022-9-2

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Demiryay, Bensu

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The capacity of ionizing radiation to cause severe damage leads to a growing concern worldwide, raising awareness to protect the living and non-living environment against nuclear disasters with efficient preparation and response. Evacuation planning plays an essential role in avoiding and mitigating the adverse effects of this radiation. This research aims to identify evacuation zones and estimate evacuation demand by developing superposed nuclear hazard maps on a GIS platform for the hypothetical accident scenario in Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (Akkuyu-NPP). It assumes a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident sequence, bringing about in-vessel core melting. Using HySPLIT, the research simulates the atmospheric dispersion models of Cesium-137 and lodine-131 in three different meteorological conditions (cold, warm and hot climate conditions) that can be observed in the Mersin region. The atmospheric dispersion models show the spatiotemporal progress of the critical threshold value of 1 mSv/hr determined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The research creates nuclear hazard maps for the first 72-hour time window by using the map overlay technique in ArcMap. Subsequently, it develops an integrated geographical database to model radiation exposure risk based on the total exposure time and thereby identifies the vulnerability level of the areas to radiation. Spatially introducing the neighborhoods' populations in the risk zones, it generates thematic maps to observe the spatial distribution of evacuation demand for each scenario within the evacuation zones. Consequently, this research provides the initial steps of evacuation planning in the emergency preparedness phase for the hypothetical accident in the Akkuyu-NPP. In this way, it guides the nuclear emergency preparedness and evacuation planning process to the emergency responders and decision-makers in Turkey to prevent potential casualties and injuries, minimize radiation exposure to the public and the environment, and mitigate the future effects of radiation.

Subject Keywords

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, HySPLIT, GIS, Superposed Hazard Mapping, Evacuation Zones

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/99515

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

B. Demiryay, “IDENTIFICATION OF EVACUATION ZONES BY SUPERPOSED HAZARD MAPPING METHOD IN CASE OF A HYPOTHETICAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT: THE CASE OF AKKUYU NUCLEAR POWER PLANT,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.