Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections

Ishida, K.
Ercan, Ali
Trinh, T.
Jang, S.
Kavvas, M. L.
Ohara, N.
Chen, Z. Q.
Kure, S.
Dib, A.
Impact of future climate change on watershed-scale precipitation was investigated over Northern California based on future climate projections by means of the dynamical downscaling approach. Thirteen different future climate projection realizations from two general circulation models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four emission scenarios (SRES A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1) were dynamically downscaled to 9-km resolution grids over eight watersheds in Northern California for a period of 90 water years (2010-2100). Analysis of daily precipitation over the eight watersheds showed that precipitation values obtained from dynamical downscaling of the 1981 to 1999 control runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs compared well with the PRISM data. Long-term future trends of annual and seasonal basin-average precipitation were investigated. Although a large variability exists for the projected annual basin-average precipitation within each of the 13 individual realizations, there was no significant long-term trend over the eight study watersheds except for the downward trend in the A1FI scenario. On the other hand, significant upward and downward trends were detected in the seasonal basin-average precipitation except in the winter months (January, February, and March). The trend analysis results in this study indicated the importance of considering seasonal variability, scenario, and model uncertainty.


Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections
Ishida, K.; Gorguner, M.; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, T.; Kavvas, M. L. (2017-08-01)
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9 km grid re...
Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo
Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.; Ercan, Ali; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. Q.; Jang, S. (2017-01-01)
Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungunwatersheds of PeninsularMalaysia bymeans of a coupled regional climate and physically- based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by ...
Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method
Kara, Fatih; Yücel, İsmail (2015-09-01)
This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment ...
Dynamically Downscaled Precipitation over Northern California Based on CMIP5 Future Climate Projections
Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M.L.; Gorguner, M.; Trinh, T.; Ercan, Ali (2017-01-01)
Precipitation over Northern California under future climate conditions was obtained by dynamically downscaling IPCC CMIP5 future climate projection realizations. Six different future climate projection realizations from three general circulation models (GCMs: CCSM4, HadGEM2ES and MIROC5) based on two CMIP5 future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution grids over eight study watersheds in Northern California for a period of 90 water years (2011 through 2100) by m...
Changes in precipitation climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean using CORDEX RCMs, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM
Mesta, Buket; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin (2022-07-01)
© 2022Mediterranean Basin is expected to be one of the regions most severely impacted by global climate change. However, the complex interactions of driving forces of climate in the region create a challenge for climate projections for the future. Findings from climate change studies support the inter-model and inter-regional variability of projections on climate change impacts. On the other hand, the studies on the evaluation of the simulation skills of high-resolution climate models for the region particu...
Citation Formats
K. Ishida et al., “Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 86–105, 2020, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: