Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo

2017-01-01
Amin, M. Z. M.
Shaaban, A. J.
Ercan, Ali
Ishida, K.
Kavvas, M. L.
Chen, Z. Q.
Jang, S.
Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungunwatersheds of PeninsularMalaysia bymeans of a coupled regional climate and physically- based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope- scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April toMay and fromJuly to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons atMuda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Suggestions

Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections
Ishida, K.; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, T.; Jang, S.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ohara, N.; Chen, Z. Q.; Kure, S.; Dib, A. (2020-03-01)
Impact of future climate change on watershed-scale precipitation was investigated over Northern California based on future climate projections by means of the dynamical downscaling approach. Thirteen different future climate projection realizations from two general circulation models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four emission scenarios (SRES A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1) were dynamically downscaled to 9-km resolution grids over eight watersheds in Northern California for a period of 90 water years (2010-2100)...
Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia
Amin, Ir. Mohd Zaki bin Mat; Ercan, Ali; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M. Levent; Chen, Z. Q.; Jang, Su-Hyung (2019-09-01)
In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a ph...
Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections
Ishida, K.; Gorguner, M.; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, T.; Kavvas, M. L. (2017-08-01)
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9 km grid re...
Identifying impacts of climate change on water resources using CMIP6 simulations: Havran basin case
Çaktu, Yasemin; Yücel, İsmail; Fıstıkoğlu, Okan; Department of Earth System Science (2022-9-2)
This study aims to investigate climate change effect on precipitation, temperature and discharge in Havran basin which has thousands of decares of agricultural lands. Changes in precipitation and temperature were determined using 10 global climate models (GCMs) for total precipitation and 13 GCMs for average temperature from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the historical period, SSP2-4.5 (moderate-case) and SSP5-8.5 (worst-case) scenarios. Both station observations and ERA5-Land re...
Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method
Kara, Fatih; Yücel, İsmail (2015-09-01)
This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment ...
Citation Formats
M. Z. M. Amin et al., “Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo,” SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, vol. 575, pp. 12–22, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/100939.