Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model

Date

2017-05-01

Author

Trinh, T.
Ishida, K.
Kavvas, M. L.
Ercan, Ali
Carr, K.

Metadata

Show full item record

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Item Usage Stats

93
views

0
downloads

Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future Water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subject Keywords

Global climate model (GCM), Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model (WEHY-HCM), Shasta Dam watershed (SDW),emission scenarios, Drought condition, Climate projections, WEHY MODEL, VARIABILITY, REANALYSIS

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/100327

Journal

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.202

Collections

Department of Civil Engineering, Article

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Assessment Study of 21st Century Drought Conditions at Shasta Dam Based on Dynamically Projected Water Supply and Water Demand Trinh, T.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M.L.; Ercan, Ali; Carr, K. (2017-01-01) Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by developing a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic manner based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections bas...
Analysis of the 2007 and 2013 Droughts in Turkey by NOAH Hydrological Model Bulut, Burak; Yılmaz, Mustafa Tuğrul (2016-10-01) Analysis of drought, which is classified as a natural disaster, is globally considering the damage it gives. As a result detection of its characteristics is essential for understanding and reducing the effects of this natural disaster and for imminent prediction. In this study, soil moisture estimates obtained from NOAH hydrological model and normalized difference vegetation index obtained from MODIS observations are used to analysis the recent droughts in Turkey. With the utilization of these parameters th...
Assessment of recently developed inner city neighborhoods according to sustainable urban planning and design criteria: the case of Çukurambar Köken, Kayhan; Şenyel Kürkçüoğlu, M. Anıl.; Urban Design in City and Regional Planning Department (2019) The world population is increasing rapidly while the most significant effects can be observed in cities. Environmental, economic and social problems are increasing continuously along with this urban growth. Classical urban planning and design approaches are no longer sufficient to address these problems. Thus, more sustainable methods are being developed to solve them. Sustainable development concept addressing current environmental, economic and social issues are on the agenda of Turkey, similar to the wor...
Identifying impacts of climate change on water resources using CMIP6 simulations: Havran basin case Çaktu, Yasemin; Yücel, İsmail; Fıstıkoğlu, Okan; Department of Earth System Science (2022-9-2) This study aims to investigate climate change effect on precipitation, temperature and discharge in Havran basin which has thousands of decares of agricultural lands. Changes in precipitation and temperature were determined using 10 global climate models (GCMs) for total precipitation and 13 GCMs for average temperature from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the historical period, SSP2-4.5 (moderate-case) and SSP5-8.5 (worst-case) scenarios. Both station observations and ERA5-Land re...
Assessment of the effects of carbon dioxide injection on the reservoir formation, caprock and wellbore integrity Omar, Abdirizak Ali; Sınayuç, Çağlar; Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering (2019) Climate change is currently one of the most serious issues affecting the planet earth and its population. The continuously increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is a major culprit. In efforts to mitigate climate change, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects have been initiated whereby CO2 is captured and injected into deep geological formations. However, a major point of concern is the safety and risk involved in the geological sequestration of CO2. To reduce this risk, it i...

Citation Formats

T. Trinh, K. Ishida, M. L. Kavvas, A. Ercan, and K. Carr, “Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model,” SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, vol. 586, pp. 197–205, 2017, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/100327.