A Bayesian inspired approach to reasoning about uncertainty: 'How confident are you?'

Date

2015-01-01

Author

Kazak, Sibel

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This paper focuses on a task design that is aimed at eliciting young students' reasoning about uncertainty as it relates to their personal degree of confidence through a Bayesian inspired informal inferential reasoning about chance games. This Bayesian inspired approach is described and discussed based on preliminary analyses of data from a teaching experiment in a designed-based research study. With this approach, beginning by a hypothesis (or prediction) about the fairness of a game and revising it based on new information appear to come natural to the students. The change in strength of their personal level of confidence seems to vary by the conflicting results obtained by playing the game, the size of the data collected, and the multiple computer simulations conducted using TinkerPlots software.

Subject Keywords

Uncertainty, probability, inferential reasoning, task design

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/100776

Conference Name

9th Congress of the European-Society-for-Research-in-Mathematics-Education (CERME)

Collections

Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Conference / Seminar

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Citation Formats

S. Kazak, “A Bayesian inspired approach to reasoning about uncertainty: ‘How confident are you?’,” presented at the 9th Congress of the European-Society-for-Research-in-Mathematics-Education (CERME), Prague, Çek Cumhuriyeti, 2015, Accessed: 00, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/100776.