Prediction of basketball game results using machine learning algorithms: NBA & TBL

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Analysis and Prediction of Basketball Game Results - Caner Kahraman Thesis Report November 2022.pdf

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2022-11-30

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Kahraman, Caner

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There are several factors affecting the basketball game results including team strength, home court advantage, resting, and momentum. Using advanced metrics and data analysis, it has become much easier for teams to measure the impact of these factors on the game results over the past few years, especially in the NBA (National Basketball Association). Only a few studies are performed related to the prediction of the basketball game results, which consider advanced team statistics and player specific factors together. This study analyzes the variables that affect basketball game results, including overall team strength via Four Factor metrics, home-court advantage, schedule, back-to-back games, momentum, and player-based variables such as maximum points per game for both NBA and TBL (Turkish Basketball League). Afterward, using the analysis findings of these factors, machine learning models are used to predict the game results in NBA & TBL for three seasons in 2016- 2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 regular seasons. In this study, ELO Rating Model, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Classifier, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, KNN, LGBM, XGBoost, and Neural Network models are used. Analysis and results show that using superstar players to advance in the league is a valid option in NBA while it is not in TBL. Moreover, TBL is more predictable (up to 77.5%) than NBA (up to 67.5%) since there are power imbalances among teams in TBL and scheduling imbalances in NBA. Also using advanced variables has a better impact on the accuracies in NBA.

Subject Keywords

Sports analytics, Machine learning in basketball, Game result prediction, NBA, TBL

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11511/101219

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

C. Kahraman, “Prediction of basketball game results using machine learning algorithms: NBA & TBL,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2022.