STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF THE EXTINCTION TIME OF EXTINCT MAMMALIAN SPECIES IN ANATOLIA

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2023-2-02

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Ekşi, Elçin

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Extinction and origination of species are fundamental to the process of evolution, a dynamic force that shapes the history of life. These processes are studied with different motivations in both paleontology and ecology. In some cases, obtaining sufficient population data for the studied species is impossible. For example, fossils of an extinct species or data from an endangered and rare species offer limited analysis. In such cases, it is possible to predict the extinction time of a species by analyzing the ordered time point data in which the species was detected in nature or stratigraphic sections using statistical methods. In this study, statistical estimation was carried out to reveal the extinction date of the wild mammalian species that lived and went extinct in Anatolia ten thousand years ago. Archaeological records of non- domesticated animals obtained from literature and databases were brought together. The ages of the archaeological remains were used for statistical analysis. Species records can be evaluated as a Poisson process and modeled according to various distributions or independently of the distribution to estimate when they disappeared. In this study, we investigate the basic features of the compiled archeological species records using a histogram, PPCC test, and Q-Q graph and whether the data were uniformly distributed. The study resulted in a list of mammalian species that became extinct in the last ten thousand years and calculated the date on which the species went extinct in the past with a 95% confidence limit. In addition, the difference between extinction date estimation methods according to the characteristics of the data has been revealed.

Subject Keywords

Extinction, Extinct Species, Extinction Time Estimation, Optimal Linear Estimation, Confidence Intervals For Temporal Range

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https://hdl.handle.net/11511/102563

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Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

E. Ekşi, “STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF THE EXTINCTION TIME OF EXTINCT MAMMALIAN SPECIES IN ANATOLIA,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2023.