Leading indicators of currency crises: the case of Turkey

Ant, Müge
This thesis examines the 1994 and 2001 currency crises in Turkey from the perspective of the leading indicators of currency crises. By applying a methodology proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart in 1998, the study examines the behaviour of the leading indicators in Turkey in the 1990s and determines whether fundamentals were deteriorated on the eve of the crises. The thesis also attempts to identify the variables that are most useful in predicting possible currency crises in Turkey.


Crisis in Slovenia: Roots, effects, prospects
Kržan, Marko (Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey), 2014-12)
The author examines the last 20 years of Slovenian economic history. He argues that export-led economic model based on depreciated domestic currency and capital controls enabled stabilization and convergence with developed EU economies until 2004. The period of debt-led growth characterized by instability and recurrent recession after 2008 is explained by dissolution of the earlier economic model after Slovenia’s accession to EU. A brief comparison is then made that reveals a striking resemblance with ...
Financial crisis in Southern Europe in comparison with Eastern Europe
Aygül, Cenk (Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey), 2014-12)
This paper examines the recent financial crisis in Southern Europe in comparison with Eastern Europe. The findings of the paper are as follows: (i) Firstly, the economic space of the EU can no longer be taken as homogeneous, and the core-periphery structures must be examined more thoroughly; (ii) Second, while the crisis is seen everywhere in Europe as it is attested by the low growth rates in the 2000s, the fates of Eastern and Southeastern Europe have diverged from each other, for they have different ways...
Dynamic relationship between Turkey and European countries during the global financial crisis
Sensoy, Ahmet; Soytaş, Uğur; Yildirim, Irem; Hacıhasanoğlu, Erk (2014-06-01)
This study examines the relationship between time-varying risk perceptions of investors towards major European countries and Turkey. In that manner, we first obtain the dynamic conditional correlations between the credit default spreads (CDSs) of Turkey and 13 European countries from September 2004 to April 2013. Next, we endogenously detect the shifts in these dynamic correlation levels using a penalized contrast methodology. Accordingly, we find positive level shifts in all correlations following the US c...
Effects of economic crises after 1990 on the Turkish insurance sector
Özbek, Pelin; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2010)
In this thesis, effects of economic crises after 1990 on the Turkish insurance sector are analyzed with special emphasis on 1994, 2001 and 2008 crises. In the first step, EGARCH model is used to measure the exchange rate uncertainty. Then, a time series model for the aggregate analysis and a panel data model for the disaggregate analysis which both include the estimated exchange rate uncertainty together with other macroeconomic and firm specific variables are set up. The results indicate that aggregate and...
The Greek political elite and the European identity: impact of the debt crisis
Çengel, Esra; Ünlü Bilgiç, Tuba; Department of European Studies (2018)
This thesis aims to analyze the possible impact of the 2008 Greek Debt Crisis on the Greek elites’ perception of belonging to the European identity. It will argue that the 2008 Debt Crisis has negatively affected the Greek elites’ perception of identity. It is assumed that this negative change has been reflected in their discourses throughout the crisis. Therefore, this thesis will try to demonstrate the change through discourse analysis of the political elites’ speeches from 2002 to 2015. In doing so, it w...
Citation Formats
M. Ant, “Leading indicators of currency crises: the case of Turkey,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2002.