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Stock market integration between Turkey and Euopean Union countries

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2004
Yücesan, Esin
The objective of the study is to analyze the effects of two breakpoints on the relationships of Istanbul Stock Exchange with the European stock markets and on the relationships among these European stock markets to increase the economic integration. The breakpoints are the execution of the Customs Union Agreement of Turkey with the European Union in 1/1/1996 and the introduction of the Euro in 1/1/1999. While both breakpoints have effects on Turkey̕s economic relations, the European Union countries are expected to be influenced by only the introduction of the Euro. Stock market indices provided by DataStream is utilized. The statistical techniques used include the correlation and cointegration analysis. Results indicate that when examined on pair wise basis Turkish stock market has more liaisons with the European stock markets, in general, after the Customs Union; but less liaisons after the conversion to Euro. However, when examined as a group, the cointegration result finds the Euro as influential as the Customs Union. Alternatively, the European stock markets have decreasing integrations as a result of correlation analysis after the Euro, but it is an influential breakpoint according to cointegrating structures.