Evaluation and modeling of streamflow data: entropy method, autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations and artifical neural networks

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2005

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Şarlak, Nermin

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In the first part of this study, two entropy methods under different distribution assumptions are examined on a network of stream gauging stations located in Kizilirmak Basin to rank the stations according to their level of importance. The stations are ranked by using two different entropy methods under different distributions. Thus, showing the effect of the distribution type on both entropy methods is aimed. In the second part of this study, autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations and an artificial neural network model are introduced. Autoregressive models (AR) which have been developed in hydrology are based on several assumptions. The normality assumption for the innovations of AR models is investigated in this study. The main reason of making this assumption in the autoregressive models established is the difficulties faced in finding the model parameters under the distributions other than the normal distributions. From this point of view, introduction of the modified maximum likelihood procedure developed by Tiku et. al. (1996) in estimation of the autoregressive model parameters having non-normally distributed residual series, in the area of hydrology has been aimed. It is also important to consider how the autoregressive model parameters having skewed distributions could be estimated. Besides these autoregressive models, the artificial neural network (ANN) model was also constructed for annual and monthly hydrologic time series due to its advantages such as no statistical distribution and no linearity assumptions. The models considered are applied to annual and monthly streamflow data obtained from five streamflow gauging stations in Kizilirmak Basin. It is shown that AR(1) model with Weibull innovations provides best solutions for annual series and AR(1) model with generalized logistic innovations provides best solution for monthly as compared with

Subject Keywords

Engineering design.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12606135/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/15151

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

N. Şarlak, “Evaluation and modeling of streamflow data: entropy method, autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations and artifical neural networks,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2005.