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Development of a risk management decision support system for intarnational construction projects

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2005
Arıkan, Arif Erdem
It is agreed upon by many researchers that, although risk management (RM) is accepted as one of the critical success factors for construction projects, project participants generally do not have sufficient knowledge pertinent to risk management concept and the number of risk management support tools which facilitate the process is rather low. In order to facilitate risk management activities, decision support tools that will enable risk identification, analysis and response strategy formulation should be developed. Decision support tools are necessary for systematic identification of risks, scenario generation, proactive management of risk and integration of risk management activities with other project management functions such as planning, cost estimating and monitoring project success. The aim of this study is to introduce a conceptual risk management model and a prototype risk management decision support system (DSS) which is applicable to construction projects. The proposed decision support system, namely Integrated Risk Management System (IRMS), is designed to support the user at all phases of the risk management process and to integrate risk management activities with other project management functions in the bid preparation stage of international construction projects. A risk management process model has been developed as well as a risk information model so that IRMS can be used for systematic management of risk by all parties involved in a construction project. Major functions of IRMS include, risk identification by using a built-in Hierarchical Risk Breakdown Structure (HRBS), risk analysis by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, risk assessment by risk rating, risk re-assessment, response generation, risk monitoring and corporate memory. The applicability of the system has been tested by a real case study and its functionality has been demonstrated using the data