An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects

Risk assessment of international projects is a complicated task because of the sensitivity of project success related to country specific risks as well as project risks. Decision makers face the difficulty of weighing project opportunities against risks and determining attractiveness of projects while giving bidding decisions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for risk and opportunity assessment of international projects. The proposed model uses an analytic hierarchy process for calculation of risk and opportunity ratings. A risk breakdown structure, specific to international construction projects, is proposed as well as a list of factors that affect the ability of construction companies to manage risk. An application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by using real data supplied by a construction company that is experienced in international markets. Ranking of project options is made according to the opportunity and risk ratings that are calculated by using the proposed methodology based on the judgments of company professionals.Key words: international construction, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process.


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In this study, an analytic network process (ANP), which can handle the interrelations between risk related factors, is proposed as a reliable technique for measuring the level of risk associated with international construction projects. Within this context, ANP is used to derive the relative priorities of risk factors as an input to a decision support tool, which can be utilized during bidding decisions. The decision support tool may help a decision maker to estimate the level of risk so that alternative pr...
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Risk management is about identifying risks, assessing their impacts, and developing mitigation strategies to ensure project success. The difference between the expected and actual project outcomes is usually attributed to risk events and how they are managed throughout the project. Although there are several reference frameworks that explain how risks can be managed in construction projects, a major bottleneck is the lack of a common vocabulary for risk-related concepts. Poor definition of risk and patterns...
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Effective risk assessment and management is critical for success in international construction projects. This paper proposes a knowledge-based risk mapping tool for systematically assessing risk-related variables that may lead to cost overrun in international markets. The tool uses an ontology that relates risk and vulnerability to cost overrun [1] and a novel risk-vulnerability assessment methodology [2] to estimate potential risk paths that may emerge in international construction projects. The tool has b...
A generic risk and vulnerability assessment framework for international construction projects
Özcan, Gülbin; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Department of Civil Engineering (2008)
Project Risk Management (PRM) comprises of identification and assessment, analysis and mitigation of risk factors in order to meet the project objectives. Risk identification and assessment process has the greatest importance as the risk models are constructed based on previously defined risk sources and their interrelations. Although previous studies have concentrated on the relation between risk events and their consequences, the link between them must be modeled by considering the various chains of risk ...
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The aim of this paper is to propose a safety management framework for construction companies. A literature review was carried out to identify significant factors that would improve safety performance. Two management tools-namely, the balanced scorecard and quality function deployment (QFD)-were used to construct the framework. Strategic goals were established for each of the following perspectives of the balanced scorecard: financial and cultural, employee, process, and learning. Afterwards, a questionnaire...
Citation Formats
İ. Dikmen Toker and M. T. Birgönül, “An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects,” CANADIAN JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, pp. 58–68, 2006, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: