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Predictive modeling of settlement mounds (9000-5500 b.c.) in the lake district region and its immediate environs

Kalaycı, Tuna
This study aims to construct a predictive model that investigates patterning of settlement mounds by employing environmental variables. The results then will help to search for unknown sites of the same age. The methodology is applied to the Lake District of Anatolia for the period of 9000B.C. 5500B.C. Four main sets of data are used in this study. The first set is the settlement data, which includes the names, coordinates, and periods of the sites. The sources of independent datasets are topography, lithology and soil. The study starts with the straightforward procedure of plotting the sites in the region. Then the layers (independent variables), populated with their sub-fields, are included in the model in the GIS to construct a predictive model by using logistic regression. Results reveal some high potential areas with no known occupation, as well as some zones which need more research. Also, hierarchy of environmental variables is detected, which affected the settlement patterning of the study area.