Modeling of mogan and eymir lakes aquifer system

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2007
Yağbasan, Özlem
Mogan and Eymir Lakes, located 20 km south of Ankara, are important aesthetic, recreational, and ecological resources. Dikilitaş and İkizce reservoirs, constructed on upstream surface waters, are two man-made structures in the basin encompassing an area of 985 km2. The purpose of this study is (1) to quantify groundwater components in lakes’ budgets, (2) to assess the potential impacts of upstream reservoirs on lake levels, and (3) to determine effects of potential climatic change on lakes and groundwater levels in the basin. Available data have been used to develop a conceptual model of the system. The three dimensional groundwater model (MODFLOW) has been developed for the system. The model has been calibrated successfully under transient conditions over a period of six years using monthly periods. The results show that groundwater inflows and outflows have the lowest contribution to the overall lakes’ budget. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the limits within which the regional parameters may vary. Three groundwater management scenarios had been developed. The results show that the upstream reservoirs have a significant effect on lake stages but not on groundwater levels. A trade-off curve between the amount of water released and the average stage in Lake Mogan has been developed. The continuation of the existing average conditions shows that there would be declines in groundwater elevations in areas upstream from Lake Mogan and downstream from Lake Eymir. The results also indicated that very small, but long-term changes to precipitation and temperature have the potential to cause significant declines in groundwater and lake levels.

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Citation Formats
Ö. Yağbasan, “Modeling of mogan and eymir lakes aquifer system,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2007.