Aspects of urban seismic risks: a comparison of risk factors in the metropolitan cities of Turkey

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2008

Author

Sönmez, Tuğçe

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Chronic seismic hazards and resulting secondary impacts are due to the geological conditions of Turkey and the nature of current response mechanisms. Local know-how of building and settlement that evolved over centuries eroded with the growth in population, and the introduction of reinforced concrete building economics. This makes cities the most vulnerable geographical and social entities in Turkey. A basic formal reference of disaster management is the National Seismic Hazard Map indicating zones of hazard probabilities which are directly related to different measures in construction. This is hardly a sufficient disaster policy tool however, as cities may have very different risk profiles independent from the hazard probabilities. City level risk variations are not considered in the Seismic Hazard Map. This study intends to establish indicators for different risk levels in urban areas other then those implied by the National Seismic Hazard Map. Apart from local morphological and geological conditions, attributes of building stock, rates of unauthorized buildings and social conditions represent vulnerability indicators and could be effective in the determination of local risk levels. One specific description of risk levels is available in the obligatory reporting of the local authorities about the "most likely level of disaster losses". This information, as an obligatory task of the governorates represents a local assessment of the most likely disaster losses and it is available from the GDDA. The city-level statistics of building stock on the other hand are available from the Turkish Statistical Institute. Correlation and Regression analyses are employed to determine what combinations of the independent variables might best denote city-level risks, and these may vary independently from their positions in the Hazard Map. The research may thus generate information for a more effective disaster policy.

Subject Keywords

General Social Sciences., Aesthetics of City.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12609739/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/17724

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

T. Sönmez, “Aspects of urban seismic risks: a comparison of risk factors in the metropolitan cities of Turkey ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2008.