Sudden stops and the adjustment of real exchange rates to current account deficits

Download
2008
Doğanay Yaşar, Özge
This study aims to analyze the causes and consequences of sudden stops in international capital flows with special reference to the recent Turkish experience. We aim to investigate also the vulnerability of the Turkish economy to a sudden stop and compute the required change in the real exchange rates for a current account adjustment in the face of a sudden stop. The assessment of the economic and structural indicators, which are assumed to be related with the resilience of the economy against sudden stops, such as openness and dollarization, refers that the risk of experiencing a sudden stop has increased in Turkey in the last two years, despite a decrease in its exposure to the destructive effects of such shocks thanks to the structural improvements in the economy. Our empirical results based on a small open economy model with tradables and non-tradables suggest that a sudden stop that requires the closing of the current account imbalance in Turkey would necessitate a real depreciation of around 36 percent as of May 2008 under the assumption that international reserves were not used in order to mitigate the level and the effects of the adjustment. Although the effects of such a real depreciation may be milder due to the decreased currency mismatches in the public and banking sector, there is still the risk of experiencing a financial crisis following a sudden stop because of the high liability dollarization in the real sector.

Suggestions

Direct foreign investment in Turkish manufacturing industry
Koldaş, Tevfik; Şenses, Fikret; Department of Economics (2005)
This study deals with direct foreign investment (DFI) in Turkish manufacturing industry with two main objectives: First, the reasons of the failure of Turkish economy in attracting sufficiently high levels of DFI is analysed as compared to the experiences other developing countries that have been successful on this count. Second, the impact of DFI in Turkish manufacturing industry is analysed in terms of export, employment, and technology contribution as well as the comparative behaviour of domestic and DFI...
Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials : an empirical investigation
Can Mutan, Oya; Özmen, Erdal; Department of Economics (2005)
This study investigates the validity of the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential (RERI) relationship for a sample of twenty-three developing and developed countries. The results based on the Johansen cointegration analysis suggest the validity of the long-run RERI relationship only for a small number of countries including Canada, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Chile, Israel and Norway. Real interest rate differentials are found to be positively associated with real exchange rates in the long-ru...
An empirical analysis of the relationship between financial deepening and economic growth: the case of Turkey
Esen, Kılıç; Voyvoda, Ebru; Department of Economics (2008)
This study aims to investigate the direction of the relationship between financial deepening and economic growth after the completion of financial liberalization in Turkey. In order to do this, an unbalanced panel data set of 49 OECD and emerging countries for 1953-2005 period is examined with Granger causality and panel data estimation techniques. In the light of panel data analysis results, quarterly Turkish time series data for 1987-2006 period is examined by using Granger causality, cointegration and Ve...
Bank competition and banking system stability: evidence from Turkey
Ak Kocabay, Selvi; Özmen, Erdal; Department of Economics (2009)
This study empirically investigates the validity of the competition and stability trade-off hypothesis for the Turkish banking system. To this end, we consider annual bank level accounting data for the 1990-2008 period and compute the most commonly used measures of banking stability and competition. The effects of macroeconomic factors and bank specific indicators including the ownership structure are also taken into account. The fixed effects panel estimation results suggest that the relation between compe...
Sequencing, pace and timing of financial liberalization process in Turkey with implications on the macroeconomic environment
Ganioğlu, Aytül; Şenses, Fikret; Department of Economics (2006)
This study basically analyzes timing, sequencing and pace of the financial liberalization experience of the Turkish economy in the 1980s and evaluates its implications for the crises in the Turkish economy since the 1990s. The objectives of this study are threefold: Firstly, it aims to reveal the main policy objectives and political factors pushing the government to take capital account liberalization decision in 1989. It is concluded that domestic decision makers have shaped and taken the decision of capit...
Citation Formats
Ö. Doğanay Yaşar, “Sudden stops and the adjustment of real exchange rates to current account deficits,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2008.