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Statistical modelling of financial statements of Turkey: a panel data analysis

Akınç, Deniz
Financial failure is an important subject for both the economical development of the country and for the self - evaluation of individual companies. Increase in the number of financially failed companies points out the misuse of the country resources. Recently, financial failure threatens both small and large companies in Turkey. It is important to determine factors that affect the financial failure by analyzing models and to use these models for auditing the financial situation. In today’s Turkey, the statistical methods that are used for this purpose involve single level models applied to cross-sectional data. However, multilevel models applied to panel data are more preferable as they gather more information, and also, enable the calculated financial success probabilities to be more trustworthy. In this thesis, publicly available panel data that are collected from The Istanbul Stock Exchange are investigated. Mainly, financial success of companies from two sectors, namely industry and services, are investigated. For the analysis of this panel data, data exploration methods, missing data imputation, possible solutions to multicollinearity problem, single level logistic regression models and multilevel models are used. By these models, financial success probabilities for each company are calculated; the factors related to the financial failure are determined, and changes in time are observed. Models and early warning systems resulted in correct classification rates of up to 100%. In the services sector, a small number of companies having publicly available data result in a decline in the success of models. It is concluded that sharing data with more subjects observed in a longer time period collected in the same format with academicians, will result in better justified outputs, which are useful for both academicians and managers.