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Models for estimating construction duration: an application for selected buildings on the metu campus

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2009
Odabaşı, Elvan
The duration of construction of a project depends on many factors, such as: cost, location, site characteristics, procurement methods, area of construction, footprint of the building and its height, etc. It is very important to be able to predict these durations accurately in order to successfully complete a project on time. Various construction duration estimation tools have been developed to make accurate predictions, as “time is money.” The main objective of this study was to develop a model that can be used to predict the construction duration of a project in a reliable and practical way. Contractors can thus use a project's characteristics, as given in the tender documents, to estimate the actual amount time it would take them to complete the construction works. In this study, factors affecting the duration of a construction project and models for estimating construction durations were investigated. Within this framework, duration estimation models such as; Bromilow’s Time-Cost (BTC) Model and Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) Model were used while Simple Linear Regression (SLR) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analyses were conducted on data related to seven case study buildings that are situated at the Middle East Technical University (METU) campus in Ankara. This data was obtained from the Department of Construction and Technical Works (DCTW) at METU. The closeness in estimation of the regression analyses was investigated and finally an MLR model was obtained which was based on two parameters; the area of the building and the area of its façade. On the other hand, as opposed to studies reported in literature, the effect of cost on duration was not seen to be significant.