Analogical reasoning for risk assessment and cost overrun estimation in construction projects

Download

index.pdf

Date

2010

Author

Çelenligil, Onur

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

199
views

144
downloads

Project cost increase is the main concern in international construction projects which usually results in disputes and conflicts among the project participants. The aim of this thesis is to construct a database that represents risk event history regarding international construction projects and construct a cost overrun prediction model. It is hypothesized that magnitudes of project related, company related and country related risk factors can be predicted by assessing the level of vulnerability by analogical reasoning with previous projects. The vulnerability and risk factors can further be used to predict cost overrun in the bid preparation stage of international construction projects. Thus, prediction models that link vulnerability with risk factors and cost are constructed by using a dataset of 166 international construction projects, which consists of 66 real and 100 hypothetical cases. Case-based reasoning (CBR) technique is used to construct the prediction models. After testing the performance of various CBR models using different weight generation and retrieval methods, error rate of +/- 7.15 % cost increase is achieved. The utilization of CBR models in the prediction of potential risk sources and cost overrun is demonstrated by a real case study. Finally, the benefits and pitfalls of using analogical reasoning for risk and cost overrun assessment of construction projects are discussed.

Subject Keywords

Management of engineering works.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612229/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/19861

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Hydraulic characteristics of tyrolean weirs Yılmaz, Nazlı Aslıcan; Göğüş, Mustafa; Department of Civil Engineering (2010) Tyrolean type water-intake structures are widely used on mountain rivers to provide water to hydropower stations. The main concern encountered in these kinds of structures is the amount of water diverted from the main channel and sediment carried by this flow. The diverted flow should not be less than the design discharge of the hydropower station and the amount of the sediment entering the hydraulic system should be minimum. In this study a physical model of a Tyrolean weir was constructed at the Hydromech...
Cultural Risk Assessment in Construction Projects Buqammaz, A,; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (2006-11-29) Construction projects are subject to diverse risk factors which may influence project participants' performance and eventually quality of the constructed projects. One of the significant risk factors is cultural risk that stems from the characteristics of a multi-cultural project environment. Therefore, it is essential to analyze causes and consequences of cultural risk when a construction organization decides to perform projects where different cultures of project parties may cause conflicts in the working...
Identification of risk paths in international construction projects Eybpoosh, Matineh; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2010) Within the context of construction projects, risk is generally defined as an uncertain happening which is the function of its occurrence probability and the severity of its possible impacts on pre-defined objectives. According to this definition, international construction projects are high-risk endeavors, since they are known with their complex natures, large sizes, multidisciplinary frameworks, and unfamiliar and uncertain environments. International construction projects have more complex risk emergence ...
Integrated Approach to Overcome Shortcomings in Current Delay Analysis Practices Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Dikmen Toker, İrem (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2015-04-01) Many factors, such as unforeseeable events, managerial and financial problems of contractors, insufficient technical capacity of site teams of contractors or Consultants, and so on, may lead to delays in construction projects. Proper analysis of compensability and quantum of a delay event is of prime importance. Any delay analysis application can be considered as a result of the combination of contract documents, scheduler, record-keeping mechanism at the site, communication among project participants, dela...
Neural Network Model to Support International Market Entry Decisions Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2004-02-01) Bidding for international construction projects is a critical decision for companies that aim to position themselves in the global construction market. Determination of attractive projects and markets where the competitive advantage of a company is high requires extensive environmental scanning, forecasting, and learning from the experience of competitors in international markets. In this paper, a neuronet model has been developed as a decision support tool that can classify international projects with resp...

Citation Formats

O. Çelenligil, “Analogical reasoning for risk assessment and cost overrun estimation in construction projects,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.