Identification of risk paths in international construction projects

Download

index.pdf

Date

2010

Author

Eybpoosh, Matineh

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

470
views

272
downloads

Within the context of construction projects, risk is generally defined as an uncertain happening which is the function of its occurrence probability and the severity of its possible impacts on pre-defined objectives. According to this definition, international construction projects are high-risk endeavors, since they are known with their complex natures, large sizes, multidisciplinary frameworks, and unfamiliar and uncertain environments. International construction projects have more complex risk emergence patterns as they are affected from multiple global and foreign country conditions as well as project-related factors. Huge and complicated interrelationships and dynamic interactions among these influencing factors necessitate more systematic, comprehensive, and multi-attribute risk management process for overseas projects. In order to satisfy the requirements of such a risk management system, a realistic, inclusive, and accurate picture of the real case, reflecting all the aforementioned aspects of the international projects, is necessary. The major aim of this study is to demonstrate that there are causal relationships between various risk factors which necessitate identification of risk paths rather than individual risk factors during risk identification and assessment phases. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse v vulnerabilities of the project system, is considered to be a better reflection of the real conditions of construction projects rather than using generic risk checklists. In this study, using the data of 166 projects carried out by Turkish contractors in international markets, and utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique, 36 interrelated risk paths were identified and the total effects of each vulnerability factor and risk path on cost overrun were assessed. SEM findings prove the main hypotheses of the study. The results demonstrate that every risk path is generated from specific vulnerabilities of inherent in project environment. Risk identification using SEM helps decision-makers in answering “what-if” questions in early stages of a project, in tracing the effects of interdependent risks throughout the life of the project, and in evaluating the influence of alternative mitigation strategies, not only on specific risks, but also on the whole network of interrelated risk factors.

Subject Keywords

Management of engineering works.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612315/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/19935

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling Eybpoosh, Matineh; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2011-12-01) The major aim of this research is to demonstrate that causal relationships exist among various risk factors that necessitate identification of risk paths, rather than individual risk factors, during risk assessment of construction projects. International construction projects have more complex risk-emergence patterns because they are affected by global and foreign country conditions and project-related factors. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse vulne...
Quantifying risk management process in a software organization Yakın, Cenkler; Saatçioğlu, Ömer; Department of Industrial Engineering (2006) This study presents a quantifying risk management process and its application on a software organization in terms of risk items mitigated, exposures covered, costs, and expected exposures covered. Risk management is defined as setting forth a discipline and environment of proactive decisions and actions to assess continuously what can go wrong (risks), to determine what risks are important to deal with, and to implement strategies to deal with those risks. Risk management can be applied in all of the busine...
Performance of the heuristic procedures for constrained projects with progress payments Sepil, C; Ortac, N (Informa UK Limited, 1997-11-01) All large scale resource constrained projects involve cash flows occurring during their life cycle. Several recent studies consider the problem of scheduling projects to maximise the net present value (NPV) of these cash flows. Their basic common assumption is that cash flows are mainly associated with specific events and they occur at event realisation times. An alternative assumption, which can be more realistic, is that cash inflows occur periodically, for example every month; as progress payments. This ...
Mapping Uncertainty for Risk and Opportunity Assessment in Projects Qazi, Abroon; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat (Informa UK Limited, 2019-01-01) Risk management is deemed as a critical process toward achieving the objectives of any project. A number of tools and techniques have been developed to help project managers reduce the risk involved in complex projects as risk is generally perceived as a negative event. However, uncertainty, which may lead to risk events may well result in opportunities. With the main aim of managing both risk and opportunity within an interdependent setting of interacting project uncertainties, we present a new thinking, c...
Analogical reasoning for risk assessment and cost overrun estimation in construction projects Çelenligil, Onur; Dikmen Toker, İrem; Birgönül, Mustafa Talat; Department of Civil Engineering (2010) Project cost increase is the main concern in international construction projects which usually results in disputes and conflicts among the project participants. The aim of this thesis is to construct a database that represents risk event history regarding international construction projects and construct a cost overrun prediction model. It is hypothesized that magnitudes of project related, company related and country related risk factors can be predicted by assessing the level of vulnerability by analogica...

Citation Formats

M. Eybpoosh, “Identification of risk paths in international construction projects,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.