Wheat price dynamics in Turkey: a nonlinear analysis

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2010

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Tonguç, Özlem

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Wheat is an extremely important agricultural commodity, due to its crucial role in everyday nutrition, food security, and in terms of incomes of a large body of farmers worldwide. This study examines the dynamics of wheat prices in Turkey in a framework that allows for regime switching. Due to their simplicity, threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are used to capture the effects of factors such as transaction costs and other institutional arrangements that generate discontinuous adjustment to equilibrium price level. The results are compared with standard linear model estimations. Results indicate that there is strong evidence for asymmetric adjustment of wheat prices in Turkey to the equilibrium price, hence models allowing for regime switching are more preferable over the linear ones. However, the diagnostics of the TAR model reveal that specification of a TAR model allowing for more than two regimes, or a smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model that allows for smooth transition through a continuum of regimes might be more appropriate.

Subject Keywords

General social sciences.

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http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612357/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/19907

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Graduate School of Social Sciences, Thesis

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Citation Formats

Ö. Tonguç, “Wheat price dynamics in Turkey: a nonlinear analysis,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2010.