Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a case study on four plant species using distribution models

Download
2011
Beton, Damla
Conservation strategies are mainly focused on species existing in an environment shaped by natural and anthropogenic pressures. Yet, evidence shows that climate is changing faster than ever and expected to continue to change in the near future, which can be devastating for plants with restricted ranges. Turkey harbors many endemic species that might be affected from these changes. However, available data is scarce and biased, complicating the anticipation of future changes. Aim of this study is to improve our understanding of endemic species distributions and forecasting effects of climate change via species distribution modelling (SDM). The study is based on two Anatolian (Crocus ancyrensis and Crataegus tanacetifolia) and two Ankara (Salvia aytachii and Centaurea tchihatcheffii) endemics. Independent presence and absence data (ranging between 19-68 and 38-61, respectively) for each species was collected through fieldwork in and around the Upper Sakarya Basin in 2008 and 2009. With the software Maxent, SDMs were performed by using 8 least correlated environmental features and random presence records (of which 25% were used for confusion matrix). SDMs for current distributions of C. ancyrensis, C. tchihatcheffii and C. tanacetifolia were reliable enough for future extrapolations despite errors originating from scale, non-equilibrium status and biotic interactions, respectively. The model for S. aytachii failed due to absence of limiting factor (soil type) in the model. Future projections of those three species modelled using CCCMA-CGCM2 and HADCM3 climate models indicated three possible responses to climate change: (1) Extinction, especially for habitat specialists; (2) Range expansion, especially for generalist species; and (3) Range contradiction, especially for Euro-Siberian mountainous species. Species modelling can be used to understand possible responses of plant species to climate change in Turkey. Modelling techniques should to be improved, however, especially by integrating other parameters such as biotic interactions and through a better understanding of uncertainties.

Suggestions

Effects of water temperature on summer periphyton biomass in shallow lakes: a pan-European mesocosm experiment
Mahdy, Aldoushy; Hilt, Sabine; Filiz, Nur; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Hejzlar, Josef; Ozkundakci, Deniz; Papastergiadou, Eva; Scharfenberger, Ulrike; Sorf, Michal; Stefanidis, Kostas; Tuvikene, Lea; Zingel, Priit; Sondergaard, Martin; Jeppesen, Erik; Adrian, Rita (2015-07-01)
Periphyton communities play an important role in shallow lakes and are controlled by direct forces such as temperature, light, nutrients, and invertebrate grazing, but also indirectly by planktivorous fish predation. We performed a pan-European lake mesocosm experiment on periphyton colonization covering five countries along a north/south geographical/temperature gradient (Estonia, Germany, Czech Republic, Turkey, and Greece). Periphyton biomass on artificial polypropylene strips exposed at 50 cm water dept...
Modeling the current and future ranges of Turkish pine (Pinus Brutia) and oriental beech (Fagus Orientalis) in Turkey in the face of climate change
Yalçın, Semra; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Düzgün, H. Şebnem; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2012)
Climate change is widely recognized to have potential impacts on global biotic and abiotic systems. One of the major impacts is expected on species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used for estimating the relationship between species occurrences at sites and environmental and/or spatial characteristics of those sites. SDMs can be used to understand possible responses of species to climate change. Despite some sources of uncertainty, projections onto future climate are useful and cost-ef...
Data Descriptor: A European Multi Lake Survey dataset of environmental variables, phytoplankton pigments and cyanotoxins
MANTZOUKİ, Evanthia; et. al. (2018-10-23)
Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consis...
The impact of climate variability on the physical properties of the Black Sea for the period 1971 – 2001
Korkmaz, Muhteşem Akif; Salihoğlu, Barış; Cannaby, Heather Anne; Department of Physical Oceanography (2011)
Deep ventilation of the Black Sea is inhibited by a sharp salinity gradient within the upper water column, resulting in a shallow anoxic interface at around 100 – 200 m depth. Understanding biological and chemical processes within the boundary region between oxic and anoxic waters is fundamental to comprehend the biogeochemical response of the Black Sea to climate forcing. The structure and depth of the chemocline is largely determined by the physical processes which transport surface waters to depth. Here ...
Effects of nutrient and water level changes on the composition and size structure of zooplankton communities in shallow lakes under different climatic conditions: a pan-European mesocosm experiment
Tavsanoglu, Ulku Nihan; Sorf, Michal; Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Brucet, Sandra; TÜRKAN, SEMRA; Agasild, Helen; Baho, Didier L.; Scharfenberger, Ulrike; Hejzlar, Josef; Papastergiadou, Eva; Adrian, Rita; Angeler, David G.; Zingel, Priit; Cakiroglu, Ayse Idil; Ozen, Arda; Drakare, Stina; Sondergaard, Martin; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2017-06-01)
Lentic ecosystems act as sentinels of climate change, and evidence exists that their sensitivity to warming varies along a latitudinal gradient. We assessed the effects of nutrient and water level variability on zooplankton community composition, taxonomic diversity and size structure in different climate zones by running a standardised controlled 6-months (May to November) experiment in six countries along a European north-south latitudinal temperature gradient. The mesocosms were established with two diff...
Citation Formats
D. Beton, “Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a case study on four plant species using distribution models ,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2011.