The Impacts of climate change and land use on the ecosystem structure and services of Lake Beyşehir

Bucak, Tuba
In this thesis, the main aim was to predict the impacts of climatic and land use changes on the ecosystem structure of Lake Beyşehir with the perspective of ecosystem services. Modeling results revealed the sensitivity of ecological and hydrological dynamics of Lake Beyşehir to climatic changes. Climate change scenarios led to reductions in total inflow rates and water levels, and the results showed that significant reductions in water abstraction are needed to maintain the lake in the future. The outcomes of the current study also indicated an important role of projected land use change on nutrient loading from the catchment, though with minor effects on surface runoff. Although lake models differed in their predictions for future nutrient concentrations and Chlorophyll-a, they both indicated a significant increase in cyanobacteria biomass in the future which may result in degradation of the lake water quality. Analysis of long-term ecosystem services revealed that the lakes’ services varied through time with a declining trend in provisional services (e.g., water level, fisheries), however, increased climate regulation services were recorded throughout the century. The water level was found to be important in affecting supporting services of the lake (e.g., biodiversity). Future projections also indicated that irrigation water service of the lake may decrease in the future considering climate change projections. Furthermore, increased cyanobacteria contribution may also affect the drinking water quality of the lake and may limit the drinking water use for certain periods with cyanobacteria bloom. All in all, the results highlighted that warmer and drier climate may decrease water availability and trigger cyanobacteria bloom that may lead to loss of ecosystem values and services of Lake Beyşehir if necessary adaptation measures are not undertaken.  


The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries
Atay, Mehmet Ufuk; Sarı, Ramazan; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2015)
The aim of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agriculture for Mediterranean countries by employing vulnerability and econometric analysis. At first step, a composite agricultural vulnerability index is created by principal component analysis (PCA) for Mediterranean counties and world’s top 35 cereal producer countries. Then, based on index scores, countries are grouped by cluster analysis. Several indicators are selected from different international databases according to three compon...
Effects of climate change on biodiversity: a case study on four plant species using distribution models
Beton, Damla; Bilgin, Cemal Can; Department of Biology (2011)
Conservation strategies are mainly focused on species existing in an environment shaped by natural and anthropogenic pressures. Yet, evidence shows that climate is changing faster than ever and expected to continue to change in the near future, which can be devastating for plants with restricted ranges. Turkey harbors many endemic species that might be affected from these changes. However, available data is scarce and biased, complicating the anticipation of future changes. Aim of this study is to improve o...
The impact of climate variability on the physical properties of the Black Sea for the period 1971 – 2001
Korkmaz, Muhteşem Akif; Salihoğlu, Barış; Cannaby, Heather Anne; Department of Physical Oceanography (2011)
Deep ventilation of the Black Sea is inhibited by a sharp salinity gradient within the upper water column, resulting in a shallow anoxic interface at around 100 – 200 m depth. Understanding biological and chemical processes within the boundary region between oxic and anoxic waters is fundamental to comprehend the biogeochemical response of the Black Sea to climate forcing. The structure and depth of the chemocline is largely determined by the physical processes which transport surface waters to depth. Here ...
Trend Analyses of Meteorological Variables and Lake Levels for Two Shallow Lakes in Central Turkey
YAĞBASAN, ÖZLEM; Demir, Vandettin; Yazıcıgil, Hasan (2020-02-01)
Trend analyses of meteorological variables play an important role in assessing the long-term changes in water levels for sustainable management of shallow lakes that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations. Lake Mogan and Lake Eymir are shallow lakes offering aesthetic, recreational, and ecological resources. Trend analyses of monthly water levels and meteorological variables affecting lake levels were done by the Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen Trend (ST), and Linear trend (LT) ...
Evaluating land use/cover change with temporal satellite data and information systems
Erener, Arzu; Duzgun, Sebnem; Yalçıner, Ahmet Cevdet (2012-01-01)
Rapid changes in land use land cover (LULC) adversely affect the environment. In order to provide information for policymakers to support sustainable development, detailed data about these regions is urgently needed. Use of remote sensing (RS) in combination with geographical information System (GIS) is one of the effective information technology tools to generate LULC change information. In this study, it is aimed to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of urban expansion by using RS integrated...
Citation Formats
T. Bucak, “The Impacts of climate change and land use on the ecosystem structure and services of Lake Beyşehir,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2017.