Analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey: a New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach

Download
2011
Eruygur, Ayşegül
The main aim of this thesis is to explain the inflation dynamics in Turkey within a theoretically consistent empirical framework. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is chosen as the basis model for our analysis because, by describing the inflation process within an intertemporal optimizing dynamic general equilibrium model, it provides a rigorous analytical groundwork for credible welfare and policy analysis. We have contributed to the literature by developing a NKPC formulation that is novel in the literature: A constant elasticity of substitution (CES) type of production function incorporating imported and domestically produced intermediate goods was combined with incomplete exchange rate pass through to import prices. The short-run inflation dynamics were analyzed within the context of this new specification by estimating the model’s highly nonlinear structural parameters that capture the price-setting behavior in Turkey for period 1988:1 - 2009:4. Our findings suggest that this NKPC formulation can explain the 1994 and 2000-01 crises as well as the current environment of low inflation achieved with the adoption of the implicit and fully fledged inflation targeting regimes quite well. As a policy application we explored the effects of the inflation targeting framework adopted after the 2000-01 crises on the parameters characterizing the inflation process in Turkey. The subsample econometric results suggested that the inflation targeting framework applied was quite successful in decreasing inflation inertia in Turkey. Thus, should the success of the inflation targeting regime continue, this should be taken as an opportunity to reduce inflation substantially with very low output losses.

Suggestions

Assessing domestic debt sustainability of Turkey with a risk management approach
Tiftik, Mehmet Emre; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2006)
This thesis analyzes the debt dynamics of Turkey and assesses the sustainability of fisscal policy. The assessment of fiscal policy follows the methodology of Garcia and Rigobon (2004). This approach focuses on the concept of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective and incorporates the effects of stochastic shocks to the economy in its assessment. The results suggest that a continuation of the present fiscal stances will lead to a fiscal unsustainability in Turkey. Furthermore, the results in...
The impact of international capital flows in a three-sector open economy: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis
Akgül, Zeynep; Saraçoğlu, Dürdane Şirin; Department of Economics (2009)
This thesis examines the effects of international capital flows on economic growth by using a dynamic general equilibrium framework based on a three-sector Ramsey Model. In order to detect the impact of financial integration on production, allocation of resources across three sectors and consumption, two different economic environments are modelled. While the first model represents a closed economy with financial autarky, the second model examplifies a financially integrated open economy with partial capita...
An empirical analysis of the monetary transmission in theTurkish economy
Çavuşoğlu, A. Tarkan; Özmen, Erdal; Department of Economics (2002)
The purpose of this two-essay thesis is to empirically investigate the characteristics of the monetary transmission mechanism in the Turkish economy. The first essay is an attempt to test the presence of a bank lending channel of monetary transmission by exploiting a dynamic panel data modelling approach. The empirical investigations are focused on the bank lending behaviour of 58 deposit money banks covering the period of 1988-1999. The results of the model estimations provide no evidence of a potential fo...
Analysis of Turkish stock market with Markov regime switching volatility models
Karadağ, Mehmet Ali; Danışoğlu, Seza; Department of Financial Mathematics (2008)
In this study, both uni-regime GARCH and Markov Regime Switching GARCH (SW-GARCH) models are examined to analyze Turkish Stock Market volatility. We investigate various models to find out whether SW-GARCH models are an improvement on the uni-regime GARCH models in terms of modelling and forecasting Turkish Stock Market volatility. As well as using seven statistical loss functions, we apply Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test of Hansen (2005) and Reality Check test (RC) of White (2000) to compare forecast...
The capital structure of Turkish real estate investment trusts (REITS)
Yıldırım, Burak; Erol, Işıl; Department of Financial Mathematics (2008)
To the best of my knowledge, there has not been any academic study about capital structure of Turkish REITs so far. This study attempts to fulfill this gap in the literature by analyzing the capital structure choices of Turkish REITs which are listed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) over the period of 1998 - 2007. The key contribution of this study is to understand whether the firm specific, institutional and country specific factors that affect the capital structures of all institutional firms including RE...
Citation Formats
A. Eruygur, “ Analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey: a New Keynesian Phillips Curve approach ,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2011.