Preparation of a source model for the Eastern Marmara Region along the North Anatolian fault segments and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Düzce province

Cambazoğlu, Selim
The North Anatolian Fault System is one of the most important active strike-slip fault systems in the world. The August 17, 1999 and November 12, 1999 earthquakes at Kocaeli and Düzce are the most recent devastating earthquakes. The study area lies in the Eastern Marmara Region and is bounded by the 28.55-33.75 E and 40.00-41.20 N, latitude and longitude coordinates, respectively. There are numerous studies conducted in the study area in terms of active tectonics and seismicity, however studies are scale dependent. Therefore, a comprehensive literature survey regarding active tectonics of the region was conducted and these previous studies were combined with the lineaments extracted from 10 ASTER images via principle component analysis manual extraction method. Therefore, a line seismic source model for the Eastern Marmara region was compiled mainly based on major seismic events of instrumental period. The seismicity of these line segments were compared with the instrumental period earthquake catalogue compiled by Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute with a homogeneous magnitude scale between 1900 and 2005. Secondary event and completeness of this catalogue was checked. The final catalogue was matched with the compiled seismic source for historical seismicity and source-scenario-segment-weight relationships were developed. This developed seismic source model was tested by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Düzce city center by utilizing four different ground motion prediction equations. It was observed that Gutenberg-Richter seismicity parameter ‘b’ does not have significant effect over the model, however change in the segmentation model have a low but certain influence.


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Citation Formats
S. Cambazoğlu, “Preparation of a source model for the Eastern Marmara Region along the North Anatolian fault segments and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Düzce province,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.