Modelling mobile telecommunications services for forecasting purposes : a cross - country analysis

Eser, Eren
Mobile telecommunications industry has experienced high growth rates for the recent 30 years. Accordingly, forecasting the future of mobile telecommunications services is important not only for mobile operators but also for all stakeholders in this industry ranging from handset manufacturers to vendors. In this thesis, the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in 20 countries from different regions around the world is examined for the period of 1981 to 2010 with special emphasis on Turkey, in order to address the uncertainty in optimal model selection. The Gompertz, logistic and Bass models are fitted to the observed data of mobile phone penetration by means of nonlinear least squares. The fitness accuracies of the models are evaluated based on root mean square error (RMSE). Empirical results show that S-shaped growth models are capable of explaining the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services. The findings also suggest that there is no superior model in defining the diffusion process and the most suitable model is country dependent. Finally, we observe that the diffusion in late entrant countries appears to be faster than pioneer countries and peak demands in mobile telephones occur during the period of 1999 to 2006, which suggests a remarkable multinational learning effect and significance of the transition into digital technology.


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Citation Formats
E. Eser, “Modelling mobile telecommunications services for forecasting purposes : a cross - country analysis,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.