Modeling the current and future ranges of Turkish pine (Pinus Brutia) and oriental beech (Fagus Orientalis) in Turkey in the face of climate change

Download
2012
Yalçın, Semra
Climate change is widely recognized to have potential impacts on global biotic and abiotic systems. One of the major impacts is expected on species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used for estimating the relationship between species occurrences at sites and environmental and/or spatial characteristics of those sites. SDMs can be used to understand possible responses of species to climate change. Despite some sources of uncertainty, projections onto future climate are useful and cost-effective tools for managers, especially given the increasing urgency to inform management authorities under the pressure of climate change. This thesis aims to model current and potential future distributions of two economically and ecologically important tree species, Turkish pine and oriental beech, in the face of climate change, and to assess the effect of using different data sets and modeling methods in model setups on SDM accuracy. The BIOMOD 2 framework, implemented in the open source software R (version 2.15.1) was used to build the distribution models. In model calibrations, different data sets of response variables were used with eight different modeling methods. Moreover, ensemble forecasting was carried out by using a proportional weighted average of each model's predictions (trained models) based on the AUC scores. Performances of the current predictions were compared to 1/25.000 scale forest stand maps and evaluated using various metrics. Future distributions for each species were projected according to IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 global circulation model. Based on the results of the ensemble models, climatically suitable areas of Turkish pine trees were predicted to shift to higher altitudes and toward the north and northeastern regions of Turkey. Potentially suitable areas for oriental beech were expected mainly to be lost and its overall distribution was predicted to be narrower in the future. While Turkish pine was likely to gain large climatically suitable areas by 2080, expansion into suitable areas by oriental beech in the future was predicted to be very limited. An important proportion of habitats where Turkish pine and oriental beech currently occur were predicted to become unsuitable in the future. Overall, climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the distributions of Turkish pine and oriental beech forests in Turkey. Depending on whether fast dispersal to newly occurred suitable habitats will be possible or not, it can be stated that serious ecological, economic and social consequences will probably come out.

Suggestions

Impacts of eutrophication and climate change on phytoplankton community structure, size diversity, and phytoplankton based ecological status
Erdoğan, Şeyda; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Demir, Ayşe Nilsun; Department of Biology (2016)
The aim of this thesis is to investigate the effects of climate change and eutrophication on phytoplankton; community structure, mean size, mean variance in size and water quality with two main approaches: i) Space-for-time substitute approach by using snap-shot sampling in 47 from 42 N to 32 N latitude of Turkey. ii) Mesocosm experiment through latitudinal gradient in six countries (Sweden, Estonia, Germany, Czech Republic, Greece and Turkey) using nutrient temperature and depth as main parameters. Mean ph...
Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beysehir
Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Tavsanoglu, U. Nihan; Cakiroglu, A. Idil; Ozen, Arda; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem (Elsevier BV, 2018-04-15)
Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beysehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. ...
Modelling of carbon sink capacity of the Black Sea
Cengiz, Yelis; Yılmaz, Ayşen; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2016)
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is constantly increasing due to human activities and results in global warming. Since Industrial Revolution 30 and 25 percentages of the anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide are taken up by the forests and by the oceans respectively. Carbon dioxide is rising faster than biosphere can tolerate and the rest of the carbon dioxide which can not be hold, continues to accumulate and causes further heating of the atmosphere. The carbon sink capacity of the ...
Assessing the impact of climate change on Mogan and Eymir Lakes' levels in Central Turkey
Yagbasan, Ozlem; Yazıcıgil, Hasan (2012-05-01)
Global warming is likely to have significant effect on the hydrological cycle. Some parts of the world may see significant reductions in precipitation or major alterations in the timing of wet and dry seasons. Climate change is one of the serious pressures facing water resources and their management over the next few years and decades. As part of the southern belt of Mediterranean Europe, Turkey is highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change impacts. The changes in global climate will seriously affect i...
Estimating net primary productivity of forest ecosystems over Turkey using remote sensing approach
Gülbeyaz, Önder; Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2018)
Understanding the fluctuations in carbon balance and global warming with respect to the global climate change and creating solutions, has become one of the most important topics in ecological studies especially during last decades. These changes, in particular for the terrestrial ecosystems, can be monitored using gross primary productivity (GPP), its derivative net primary productivity (NPP) (the subtraction of autotrophicrespirationfromGPP)andnetecosystemproductivity(NEP)(subtraction of both plant respirat...
Citation Formats
S. Yalçın, “Modeling the current and future ranges of Turkish pine (Pinus Brutia) and oriental beech (Fagus Orientalis) in Turkey in the face of climate change,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.