Climate change and future proofing infrastructure: Etimesgut, Ankara case study

Oruç, Sertaç
This study examines the potential impacts of climate change and land use/cover change; investigates how to incorporate these changes into urban stormwater network design. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for the (1950-2015 period) observed data and projections (2015-2098 period) for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales and used for future period the analysis. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data is obtained. Also land use/cover change and urbanization in Ankara is investigated in general. Land use/cover situation together with the type and rate of change is examined particularly to obtain a composite runoff coefficient for the pilot study area considering the current and potential development conditions. Stormwater network design is assessed considering the nonstationarities and future conditions for present stormwater network of railway critical infrastructure located in Etimesgut pilot study area. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend. The magnitude of future period extreme rainfall decreases with respect to observations. Return periods of the extreme rainfall increase in the future period therefore, not considering these trends may lead to overdesign of the stormwater network.


Climate Change Prompts Monitoring and Systematic Utilization of Honey Bee Diversity in Turkey
Kükrer, Mert; Bilgin, Cemal Can (2020-7-01)
Quantitative studies concerning the impact of climate change on pollinators are generally lacking. Relationship between honey bee diversity, present local adaptations and adaptive capacity of subspecies and ecotypes in the face of climate change is an urgent but rather poorly studied topic worldwide. Actually, such an effort lies at the crossroads of various fields of inquiry. Those include conservation of local honey bee diversity, breeding various local stocks for desirable traits, and enabling resilient ...
İklim Değişikliği, Ekstrem Yağışlar Ve Etkileri: Etimesgut, Ankara Örneği
Oruç, Sertaç; Yücel, İsmail; Yılmaz, Ayşen (2019-09-10)
Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin ve arazi kullanımı/örtüsündeki değişikliğin potansiyel etkilerini incelemekte; bu değişiklikleri kentsel yağmur suyu şebeke tasarımına nasıl dahil edeceğini araştırmaktadır. Gözlem (1950-2015 dönemi) ve projeksiyon (2015-2098 dönemi) yağış verileri için durağan ve durağan olmayan bir yaklaşımla Ankara ili, Türkiye için yağış analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Günlük projeksiyonlar daha küçük ölçeklere ayrıştırılarak analizlerde kullanılmıştır. Gözlem ve projeksiyon verileri için ...
Effects of climate change on water resources in Ömerli basin
Kara, Fatih; Yücel, İsmail; Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2014)
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on water resources through precipitation and discharge analyses in Omerli catchment Istanbul, Turkey. Precipitation and temperature data are obtained from GCM (Global Circulation Model)/RCM (Regional Climate Model) combinations based on A1B carbon scenario via Europen Union (EU)-ENSEMBLESproject. The data is obtained at 25 km resolution on daily time scale for reference period between 1960 and 1990 and future period between 2071 and 2100. The HBV (Hydrol...
Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections
Ishida, K.; Gorguner, M.; Ercan, Ali; Trinh, T.; Kavvas, M. L. (2017-08-01)
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9 km grid re...
Drought analysis using CORDEX simulations over the mediterranean climate regions of Turkey
Poyraz, Anıl Yıldırım; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Civil Engineering (2018)
Drought has been a significant result of climate change that causes variance on precipitation regimes. Mediterranean region is one of the hotspots of the world in this respect. Dry summers and rainy winters -the characteristic of this climate type- makes this region more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Hence, it is important to monitor drought considering the increasing population and economic facilities in the regions that are under Mediterranean climate conditions in Turkey. This study aims t...
Citation Formats
S. Oruç, “Climate change and future proofing infrastructure: Etimesgut, Ankara case study,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2018.