Drivers of the oil price : an empirical analysis of the effect of oil imports by OECD regions

Güneyligil, Ümmügülsüm
This study analyzes the effect of oil imports by OECD regions on crude oil price by using Kaufmann’s price rule as a benchmark. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach; it is found that there is cointegration between crude oil prices, days of forward consumption of OECD crude oil stocks, OPEC quota, OPEC cheat and key variables imported crude oil by OECD. However, ARDL based error correction models (ECM) indicate that regional factors are not a significant determinant of crude oil price both in the short run and long run. Cointegration is also found when imported crude oil by total OECD is replaced with regional variables. For the model with OECD total, there is a significant positive long run relation between imported crude oil by OECD and crude oil prices. So, the role of OECD on world price is still important even if it experiences much lower oil demand growth compared to emerging countries. Moreover, in order to capture the dynamic responses, a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology has been employed. The results show that imported crude oil by OECD in previous quarter; affects crude oil price more than imported crude oil in the present which proves imported crude oil by OECD in previous period has more driving power on the determination of oil price than imported crude oil by OECD in present period because price might be a late responser. And based on the graphs of impulse response functions (IRF), it is found that crude oil price does not response significantly to a shock in imported crude oil by OECD and vice versa.


The Relation between crude oil prices and financial market indicators: a copula approach
Öztürk, Derya Ezgi; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Küçüközmen, Coşkun; Department of Financial Mathematics (2014)
Oil prices have far reaching effects on the economy and financial markets since oil market is one of the most important markets in the world due to its crucial role of oil within economic activity. Although most of the economies are expected to be affected by the changes of oil prices, the magnitude of the effects may change from country to country. Oil-export/import dependent countries are expected to be more open to impacts arousing from changes in oil prices. Turkey, as a heavily oil importing country, i...
The political economy of oil in Kazakhstan
Kahveci, Hayriye; Altunışık, Meliha; Department of International Relations (2007)
This thesis analyzes the political economy of oil in the post-Soviet Kazakhstan. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, which is one of the newly independent states of the former Soviet geography, became very popular in the international arena with its hydrocarbon riches. There have been discussions in the scholarly and international political agendas that the country will suffer from the so called “curse” that is associated with the producing states. This dissertation looks at the political...
The Effects of exchange rates, oil prices, global risk perceptions and global warming on food prices
Dağdelen, Derya; Soytaş, Uğur; Department of Business Administration (2012)
This thesis examines the relationship between food prices, oil prices, carbon emission prices, exchange rates and global risk perception. To obtain the effects of these variables on the food prices, Toda and Yamamoto procedure is employed for 5-day week daily time series covering the period February 27, 2008 and March 21, 2011. The empirical results indicate that only volatility index Granger causes food prices. Furthermore, according to results of generalized impulse response plots food prices respond to a...
Evolution of oil politics in Iraq from the 20th century onwards
Akyüz, Zeynep Ceren; Altunışık, Meliha; Ediger, Volkan; Department of Middle East Studies (2011)
The objective of this thesis is to analyze the Iraqi politics of oil in the period from 20 th century onwards. Within this regard, while “rentier state” conception is generally put under consideration to understand the state’s centrality in political, economic and social spheres of oil –producing countries, contrary to this conventional approach,this thesis argues that the key to all achievements and all failures of Iraqi state is related to the status of oil in Iraq’s engagement with the superpowers and th...
Analysis of gas prices for Turkey from 2003-2011
Wilberforce, Kiribaki; Yozgatlıgil, Ceylan; Kalaylıoğlu Akyıldız, Zeynep Işıl; Department of Statistics (2012)
This study aimed to construct a forecasting model for gas prices in Turkey using Univariate time series analysis. The best model was developed after assessing the forecasting performances for both Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ES) model. Firstly, we fitted different combinations of both ARIMA and SARIMA models (from which the best model was chosen) by using the monthly oil prices from January 2003 to December 2011. The ES model was automatically ...
Citation Formats
Ü. Güneyligil, “Drivers of the oil price : an empirical analysis of the effect of oil imports by OECD regions ,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2013.