Show/Hide Menu
Hide/Show Apps
Logout
Türkçe
Türkçe
Search
Search
Login
Login
OpenMETU
OpenMETU
About
About
Open Science Policy
Open Science Policy
Communities & Collections
Communities & Collections
Help
Help
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guides
Guides
Thesis submission
Thesis submission
MS without thesis term project submission
MS without thesis term project submission
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission with DOI
Publication submission
Publication submission
Supporting Information
Supporting Information
General Information
General Information
Copyright, Embargo and License
Copyright, Embargo and License
Contact us
Contact us
Analysis of gas prices for Turkey from 2003-2011
Download
index.pdf
Date
2012
Author
Wilberforce, Kiribaki
Metadata
Show full item record
Item Usage Stats
184
views
54
downloads
Cite This
This study aimed to construct a forecasting model for gas prices in Turkey using Univariate time series analysis. The best model was developed after assessing the forecasting performances for both Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ES) model. Firstly, we fitted different combinations of both ARIMA and SARIMA models (from which the best model was chosen) by using the monthly oil prices from January 2003 to December 2011. The ES model was automatically fitted next for forecasting performance comparison purposes. We then extracted the forecasted monthly values for 2012 for both models and compared their forecast performances. The ARIMA (1,1,0) model gave the best fit for the gas price series for Turkey. The results depicted that the ARIMA model forecasts work effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for forecasting future Turkish gas prices. It can be used by governments, investors and other gas users to predict and address negative impacts that gas shocks creates.
Subject Keywords
Petroleum products
,
Oil industries
,
Gas industry
,
Time-series analysis.
URI
http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615212/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/22327
Collections
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis
Suggestions
OpenMETU
Core
Evaluation and forecasting of gas consumption by statistical analysis
Gorucu, FB; Gumrah, F (2004-02-01)
This study includes an approach to understand the factors affecting gas demand and to forecast gas consumption by multivariable regression analysis for the capital city of Ankara, Turkey. The process of the study is developing a statistical model and testing the model for the past years to understand how accurate it is. After obtaining the most reliable model, forecasting the gas consumption for the remaining days of 2002 and the year 2005 is performed. During the project, by the means of economical conditi...
Quantification and analysis of uncertainties in reservoir modeling using multiple-point geostatistics
Fadlelmula Fadlelseed, Mohamed Mohieldin; Akın, Serhat; Düzgün, H. Şebnem; Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering (2012)
This study analyzed and quantified uncertainties of reservoirs modeled using multiple-point geostatistics (MPG). The uncertainty types analyzed herein are training image (TI) and hard data (porosity) uncertainties. Aiming at studying the impact of TI uncertainty, this study provides a tool to parameterize TIs having channel structure by a mathematical (Sine) function so that a TI is a function of four parameters. These parameters are channels’ number, waves’ number in each channel, amplitude level of waves,...
Drivers of the oil price : an empirical analysis of the effect of oil imports by OECD regions
Güneyligil, Ümmügülsüm; Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif; Department of Economics (2013)
This study analyzes the effect of oil imports by OECD regions on crude oil price by using Kaufmann’s price rule as a benchmark. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach; it is found that there is cointegration between crude oil prices, days of forward consumption of OECD crude oil stocks, OPEC quota, OPEC cheat and key variables imported crude oil by OECD. However, ARDL based error correction models (ECM) indicate that regional factors are not a significant determinant of crude...
Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Barcelona
Alptekin, Bülent; ALADAĞ, ÇAĞDAŞ HAKAN (2016-09-09)
In order to reach accurate tourism demand forecasts, various forecasting methods have been proposed in the literature [1]. These approaches can be divided into two subclasses. One of them is conventional methods such as autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) or exponential smoothing. And, the other one is advanced forecasting techniques such as fuzzy time series, artificial neural networks (ANN) or hybrid approaches. The main purpose of this study is to develop some efficient forecasting models based on ANN ...
Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey
Soytaş, Uğur; Oran, Adil (2011-01-01)
This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, ou...
Citation Formats
IEEE
ACM
APA
CHICAGO
MLA
BibTeX
K. Wilberforce, “Analysis of gas prices for Turkey from 2003-2011,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2012.
