Crime prevention strategies for Turkish cities through spatial crime analysis: a case study of Keçiören

Yavuzer, İpek
The place-based crime prevention notion comes from the idea that the human behavior is influenced by the environment, so it is possible to prevent crime before it happens by controlling and managing the environment with a proper design. To create a more secure environment and better quality of life, it is necessary to analyze the physical and nonphysical factors that affect crime victimization in order to develop crime prevention strategies. In the thesis, a spatial model is developed to analyze the physical and nonphysical parameters of crime victimization in Turkish cities to develop place-based strategies for crime prevention. Five neighborhoods of Keçiören Municipality in Ankara is selected as the study area, concerning its typical urban structure of Turkish cities and the crime victimization problem. The analysis is performed for non-physical parameters at the macroscale, which defines 98 small statistical areas within 5 neighborhoods. Non-physical parameters are defined as socioeconomic variables, precautions taken against crime, and the perception of security. The micro analysis evaluates the relationship of physical parameters in a smaller representation unit as buildings, road segments and three different zones for buildings on the main roads, buildings behind the main roads, and buildings in the hinterland. The physical parameters are defined as the building density on road segments, target accessibility, the degree of road network, and building properties like the number of floors, the use of building, the availability of gardens, parcel walls, a defined entrance, the side of entrance, facing the public realm, and the availability of elevation differences in the building. The data used for the macro analysis are derived from a victim survey with 1744 samples applied to the households about their socio-economic status, the precaution methods they use, their attitude towards crime and the perception of security, and victimization for different crime types. The survey was prepared by Düzgün (2006) and funded by the State Planning Organization in 2007, under the name of the project “Developing Crime Prevention Strategies Based on vi Spatial Analysis in Urban Area”. In the macro analysis, the Socio-Economic Status index (SES), precaution, security, and victimization indexes are created by a multivariate statistical model, the Principle Component Analysis. The correlation between crime victimization and three different indexes are analyzed and the relationship between population density and land use and different crime victimization types is evaluated. In the micro analysis burglary victimization and physical parameters are evaluated for smaller representation units. Finally, the physical and non-physical variables are statistically tested with the regression analysis and with the results, place-based strategies are suggested to prevent crime in the study area and in Turkish cities.