Assessment of sea level rise for coastal zone management: vulnerability of Fethiye Bay /

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2014
Atalay, Aysim Damla
Low-lying geographies are quite attractive and preferable for the populations in terms of settlement, agriculture and tourism. Based on the recent findings of archaeological research, it can obviously be seen that people has generally settled and developed civilizations on low-lying areas. As one of the impacts of global climate change, accelerated sea level rise mainly due to thermal expansion of surface waters has become a growing threat especially for low-lying areas worldwide. Among the most profound impacts of sea level rise, coastal erosion, inundation of lands, flooding of coastal areas due to increased storm surges and salt water intrusion to fresh water resources (Ozyurt, 2010) come into prominence in the long term. Fethiye as an attractive touristic destination in Turkey is exposed to many hazards like tsunamis and earthquakes throughout the history (Minoura et al. 2000). Topographical characteristics of this ancient town of Turkey, brings its importance into forefront in terms of the need for its coastal vulnerability assessment within the CVI (Coastal Vulnerability Index to Sea Level Rise) Model and FCVAM (Fuzzy Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Model) (Ozyurt, 2010). The main objective of this thesis is to determine the vulnerability of Fethiye in order to be a guide for decision makers in taking measure and preparing adaptation plans for its sustainability in the long term scale. Within the scope of this thesis, the vulnerability assessment studies with both fuzzy logic and parameter based basic version are conducted and compared. The preliminary model result gives the coastal vulnerability level as high-moderate, but the fuzzy coastal vulnerability assessment model obtains vulnerability level within the moderate range. In light of the results of both model studies, inundation, coastal erosion and flooding due to storm surge rank in vulnerability priority as the most salient coastal impacts of sea level rise. This study aims to give an idea for authorities and decision makers on the optimal resource allocation and adaptation plans in the sense of coastal zone management practices.

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Citation Formats
A. D. Atalay, “Assessment of sea level rise for coastal zone management: vulnerability of Fethiye Bay /,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2014.