The Estimation of adopted mortality and morbidity rates using markov model and phase type law: Turkish case

Download

index.pdf

Date

2015

Author

Akat, Fulya

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

195
views

106
downloads

Mortality estimation has an important role in determining future population structures and making economical decisions. However, mortality measures do not provide sufficient information about populations. Because of this reason, morbidity estimation of chronic diseases and disabilities has become more important. In this study, firstly Turkish Mortality Tables, such as TRSH 2010, TRH 2010 and SGK 2008, and CSO1980 are adopted to Markov Model to determine mortality rates with respect to phase type distribution for the purpose of justifying if these tables represent the Turkish population structure well. After that, ischemic heart disease (IHD), which is the most fatal illness in the Western countries, mortality and morbidity rates are found and analysed by utilizing the same approach. Using one absorbing state, Markov Model gives the opportunity of calculating time until absorbing by phase type distribution. We determine the time until absorbing of diseases and the time until death by this distribution. Moreover, e factor in the phase type distribution is calculated. By the help of this factor, new risk factors can be applied to the model by modification.

Subject Keywords

Mortality, Medical statistics., Markov processes., Stochastic processes.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12618628/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/24550

Collections

Graduate School of Applied Mathematics, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

The estimation of adopted mortality and morbidity rates using model and the phase type law: the Turkish case Akat, Fulya; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Tank, Fatih (2019-10-21) This paper aims to estimate mortality rate, morbidity-mortality rates of a chronic disease utilizing phase type law in the frame of two and three state processes. The application on commonly used mortality tables in Turkey are adopted to process to estimate the future mortalities with respect to phase type distribution for the purpose of justifying. Using one absorbing state, two and three state Models calculate the time until absorbing of the death and death by phase type distribution for each gender. Cons...
Modeling future mortality rates using both deterministic and stochastic approaches Hasgül, Etkin; Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe; Yolcu Okur, Yeliz; Department of Actuarial Sciences (2015) This study is based on creating an alternative mortality rates projection method for constructingthefuturemortalitytablesofseveralcountriesincludingTurkey. Amodel, which can truly estimate the future mortality rates with a 95% conﬁdence interval, is built. During the study, a general model which includes the dependent variable; logit function of death rate, and the independent variables; general tendency of the mortality evolution independent of age, the mortality steepness, additional effects of childhood,...
Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks Balcı, Sibel; Akkaya, Ayşen; Can, Tolga; Department of Statistics (2014) With the development of microarray technology, it is now possible to obtain the concentration levels of thousands of genes at a given time or in a given state. By following the changes in the gene expression levels, the responsible genes for cell differentiation or certain diseases can be identified. Gene expression changes are regulated by the interactions between the genes and their products. Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) identify these interactions using the gene expression changes. There are a number ...
Türkiye Batı Ege Bölgesi’nde Sosyal ve Çevresel Değişime Karşı Hasar Görebilirlik Değerlendirmesi Kozaman, Senem (Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Architecture, 2017-6-15) Doğal değerlerin yoğun olduğu alanlar; bu değerlerin sürdürülebilirliği için koruma politikalarına konu olurken, diğer taraftan çevresel kaynakların çekiciliği nedeniyle artan nüfusun ve gereksinimlerinin yaratmış olduğu antropojenik baskı ve değişime maruz kalmaktadır. Özellikle kaynaklarıyla birçok ekosistem hizmeti sağlayan kıyı alanlarında küresel ölçekte son yüzyıldır çevresel değişimler yoğunluk göstermektedir. Sürdürülebilirliği kısıtlayan daimi tüketim eğilimi, çevresel bozulmalara ve kirliliğe nede...
Effect of Turkish mortality developments on the expected lifetime and annuity using entropy measure Yıldırım Külekci, Bükre (2020-06-01) Over the past three centuries, there has been a steady and gradual decline in mortality rates due to a considerable process of eliminating hazards to survival, which have increased the life expectancy at birth remarkably. The improvements in mortality rates often been underestimated by annuity and pension providers. To measure the effect of mortality rate developments on life expectancy or annuity, many demographers use the idea of entropy. We use the entropy measure to explain the effect of any change in m...

Citation Formats

F. Akat, “The Estimation of adopted mortality and morbidity rates using markov model and phase type law: Turkish case,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2015.