Modeling future mortality rates using both deterministic and stochastic approaches

Hasgül, Etkin
This study is based on creating an alternative mortality rates projection method for constructingthefuturemortalitytablesofseveralcountriesincludingTurkey. Amodel, which can truly estimate the future mortality rates with a 95% confidence interval, is built. During the study, a general model which includes the dependent variable; logit function of death rate, and the independent variables; general tendency of the mortality evolution independent of age, the mortality steepness, additional effects of childhood, youth and old age, has been used. The model has two dimensions: the age of the target unit and the year of interest. Generalized linear model estimation, which is a deterministic approach, is used in order to estimate the parameters of the general model. Weighted Least Square Method with a stochastic term, which can be considered as both deterministic and stochastic approach, is used to project future values of one parameter. On the other hand, Random Walk with Drift is used on other parameters. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in order to make the model more stable. The study is applied on Hong Kong [6], USA [13], and Turkish Mortality Rates [23]. Eventually, the life insurance companies and Turkish Social Security Institution can take the advantage of future mortality projections obtained by using the model in this study for the calculation of premiums.


A Bayesian longitudinal circular model and model selection
Çamlı, Onur; Kalaylıoğlu Akyıldız, Zeynep Işıl; Department of Statistics (2017)
This research was motivated by a recent medical study that aims to estimate the general fetal head progression trajectory during the first stage of normal labour adjusted for maternal characteristics and environmental factors. A rather primitive manual method for determining the progression has recently been replaced by an ultrasound technology that can precisely measure the fetal's head angle. The particular challenge with such data is the model selection procedures that could objectively assess the models...
Modeling and Simulation of High Speed Railway Vehicle Dynamics
Tuğçe, Yüksel; Ünlüsoy, Yavuz Samim (null; 2015-03-04)
This study aims to provide mathematical model(s) for the simulation of high speed railway vehicles. The dynamic behavior of a high speed train is divided into three uncoupled motions: vertical, lateral, and longitudinal. Two models with different complexities are used to simulate vertical plane response of the vehicle to track vertical irregularities. Different wheel-rail contact formulations are utilized to simulate the lateral plane motion of the vehicle on tangent and curved tracks. For both vertical and...
Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions
YAVUZ, CÜNEYT; Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin; Aral, Mustafa M. (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020-08-01)
In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of risk are calculated and aggregated to obtain the overall risk maps for a number of elements at risk (EaR) that are identified from seven countries located along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. Historical earthquakes that are recorded in the region dur...
Probabilistic modeling of plane failure in rock slopes
DUZGUN, HSB; Yücemen, Mehmet Semih; Karpuz, Celal (2003-07-09)
The basic aim of this study is to formulate a probabilistic method by which sources of uncertainties can be taken into account and systematically analyzed in dealing with the rock slope stability problem. For this purpose, the advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) procedure are used to model the plane failure problem in rock slopes. The modeling of plane failure by the AFOSM and the MCS methods requires the understanding of the basic mechanism of plane failur...
İnce, Mustafa Levent (SAGE Publications, 2008-12-01)
The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a 12-wk. physical activity intervention, based on conceptual discussions and practices of a social cognitive theory on health-promoting behaviors of 62 university students. The intervention Mainly focused on development of self-regulatory skills, social support, and self-assessment of health-related fitness. The Adolescent Health Promotion Scale and International Physical Activity Questionnaire were given Analysis of self-reports indicated improved nut...
Citation Formats
E. Hasgül, “Modeling future mortality rates using both deterministic and stochastic approaches,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2015.