Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions

Kentel Erdoğan, Elçin
Aral, Mustafa M.
In this study, we present a novel methodology that may be used to analyze tsunami risk along coastal regions. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the Eastern Mediterranean coast. Economic, social and environmental dimensions of risk are calculated and aggregated to obtain the overall risk maps for a number of elements at risk (EaR) that are identified from seven countries located along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. Historical earthquakes that are recorded in the region during the period 1900-2013 are used as data, and probabilistic tsunami modeling is carried out using Monte Carlo analysis. Based on historical data, randomly generated earthquakes are simulated, and wave propagation analysis is performed using NAMI-DANCE software. Inundation depth-damage analysis and exceedance probabilities of tsunami inundations are used to evaluate social and economic risks while the environmental risk is calculated using a binary approach. The overall risk map is constructed in the geographic information system environment. Cairo Agricultural Area in Egypt and Fethiye City in Turkey are identified as high-risk EaR in the Eastern Mediterranean coastline. The new risk assessment methodology may be utilized in coastal regions of the world, and the results obtained for the Eastern Mediterranean may be effectively used in developing preventive measures and disaster management strategies for tsunamis that may develop the region.


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Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodolo...
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Tsunami forecast possibilities for areas with a small base of historical tsunamis have been discussed using the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) method, which is based on a statistical analysis of a sufficiently large number of real and predictive earthquakes with a subsequent calculation of possible tsunami waves. This method has been used for a long-term tsunami hazard assessment on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. The predicted wave heights have been shown to vary along the coastline due t...
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The project main goal is to contribute to our understanding of tsunami processes in the Euro-Mediterranean region, to the tsunami hazard and risk assessment and to identifying the best strategies for reduction of tsunami risk. Focus will be posed on the gaps and needs for the implementation of an efficient tsunami early warning system (TEWS) in the Euro-Mediterranean area, which is a high-priority task in consideration that no tsunami early warning system is today in place in the Euro-Mediterranean countrie...
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Accuracy assessment of precipitation retrievals is a pre-requisite for many hydrological studies as it helps to understand the source and the magnitude of the uncertainty in hydrological response variables, particularly over regions with complex topography. This study evaluates GPM IMERGv05, TMPA 3B42V7, ERA-Interim, and ERA5 precipitation products using 256 ground-based gauge stations between 2014 and 2018 over Turkey known to have complex topography and varying climate. Error statistics, categorical perfo...
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The tsunami hazard in the Black Sea is discussed by comparing historical, instrumental data and numerical results. There are 22 tsunami events in the Black Sea documented since the first century, and nine of them have occurred in twentieth century. The numerical simulations of tsunami propagation for the 1966 and 1939 events are performed by using the framework of the shallow-water theory. The instrumental data from tide gauge records are used to compare and validate the simulation results and estimate the ...
Citation Formats
C. YAVUZ, E. Kentel Erdoğan, and M. M. Aral, “Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions,” NATURAL HAZARDS, pp. 0–0, 2020, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/40758.