Understanding real estate bubbles: an analysis of the recent trends in the Turkish housing market

Karasu, Mustafa Nusret
The main aim of this thesis is to determine whether there is a real estate bubble in Turkey recently, where the house prices are increasing rapidly. In order to do this, the thesis tries to define the bubble concept, by reviewing literature. The common view among economists is that bubbles are deviation of prices from their fundamentals which is associated with sudden increases in prices. We usually witness harsh economic crises after the bursts of bubbles in economies and this constitutes the source of the motivation of this thesis. After examining several earlier examples and some common symptoms of real estate bubbles, the thesis documents the Turkish housing market indicators in order to be informed about the current state. Afterwards some econometric methods are performed. Using a 10 years long dataset (2005-2014), this is among the first comprehensive studies on housing bubble for Turkey. Even though the exposure of the real estate market on the financial sector is lower in Turkey compared to advanced countries, housing loans are significantly increasing. The results suggest that Turkish housing sector is quite active especially after 2012 and some symptoms of earlier examples match with the current situation. Therefore the year 2012 can be argued as the beginning of the current boom and it will be convenient to call it bubble if this trend continues for several years.


The process of intergenerational transmission of housing wealth
Kayıket, Aslı; Balamir, Murat; Department of City and Regional Planning (2003)
For several decades, Turkey has witnessed increasing investments in housing. There is evidence that some households benefited from this increase. The transfer of housing assets today is also an extensive social and economic phenomenon different from the traditional processes. There are several issues related to this process the most significant being the universal concern for its contribution to wealth polarization. Supply impacts in the markets are other aspect of the same process. Since greater accumulati...
Securing future of social housing: learning from an alternative regeneration/ gyldenrisparken in Denmark
Bican, Nezih Burak; Cengizkan, Ali; Mortensen, Peder Duelund; Department of Architecture (2016)
There has been a vast quantity of mass-housing production by the central housing authority in Turkey in the recent years. Operated in line with neo-liberal economy-policies since the beginning of 2000s, the public production has concentrated on speed of construction, quantity of dwelling units, and developing financial resource for ‘social housing’ provision by building luxury housing in profitable urban lands. However, this provision has faced criticism of various academic and non-academic circles, primari...
Failing promises of homeownership in Turkey
Aksoy Khurami, Esma; Özdemir Sarı, Özgül Burcu; Department of City and Regional Planning (2020-12-23)
Homeownership is not a new agenda of housing policy in Turkey. During the last 20 years, policies promoting homeownership have been executed, and planning has been used as a pair of tongs. Through new house building, the increase in homeownership rates is expected to provide individuals with a means of opportunity. As initial promises, homeownership is argued to provide everyone with a chance to acquire a stable home, a way of refraining from affordability problems, wealth accumulation through housing, and ...
Typological residential urbanism: an alternative analysis of the TOKİ housing production as a dominant type
Parlak, Neris; Cengizkan, Ali; Department of Architecture (2015)
Housing production in Turkey has increased enormously in recent years. Quality of the urban form as a result of this housing production is extremely significant since it directly affects the quality of Turkish cities. This thesis aims to draw attention to the potential of the concept of typology on evaluating the quality of urban form of housing environments. Thus, the thesis attempts to test the potential by carrying out a typological analysis of the housing production of TOKİ, which is one of the three ma...
Housing affordability of different income groups in turkey: regional comparison
Aksoy, Esma; Özdemir Sarı, Özgül Burcu; Department of City and Regional Planning (2017)
Housing affordability has been a major topic of interest both for researchers and policy makers in many countries. However, in the Turkish case, research on housing affordability is scarce. The problem of housing has usually been considered as a quantitative deficiency problem in Turkey, and for many decades any other dimension of the problem is neglected. Increasing the housing stock in numbers has always been given priority by the Turkish governments. This tendency to support new housing production has co...
Citation Formats
M. N. Karasu, “Understanding real estate bubbles: an analysis of the recent trends in the Turkish housing market,” M.S. - Master of Science, Middle East Technical University, 2015.