The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries

Atay, Mehmet Ufuk
The aim of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agriculture for Mediterranean countries by employing vulnerability and econometric analysis. At first step, a composite agricultural vulnerability index is created by principal component analysis (PCA) for Mediterranean counties and world’s top 35 cereal producer countries. Then, based on index scores, countries are grouped by cluster analysis. Several indicators are selected from different international databases according to three components of vulnerability which are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity by assessing the related previous studies, examining the relevancy of indicators with food security and data availability from the international sources. As a second step, econometric analysis is conducted for clustered country groups obtained from the vulnerability index development part of the study. Panel ARDL method for pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimators is applied to clusters for three mostly harvested crop in Mediterranean region which are wheat, maize and potato. The novelty of this study is based on the methodology applied to determine the impact of climate change on crops. As a result, it is suggested that North African countries are more vulnerable to climate change in agriculture than South European countries due to their low adaptive capacity level. Another finding is that selected crops are more influenced from temperature in the long run when compared to impact of precipitation. An increase in temperature by 1% for cluster-1 and cluster-2 countries leads to decline in 0.3% and increase in 1.1% in wheat yield; 0.36% and 0.67% decline in maize yield, rise in about 2.0% and 2.8% in potato yield, respectively. Further, output of this study helps policy makers to measure and understand better the degree of risk to climate change and implement appropriate regulations for the agricultural sector.


Climate change, agriculture and trade policy: CGE analyses at regional, national and global level
Dudu, Hasan; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2013)
This thesis investigates the effects of climate change on the Turkish economy by using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models at regional, national and global level. The physical impact of climate change is first translated into yield and irrigation requirement shocks by using a crop-hydrology model developed for this study. Then these are introduced into the CGE models as productivity shocks to investigate their effects on the overall economy. Simulation results suggest that climate change will come i...
The Impacts of climate change and land use on the ecosystem structure and services of Lake Beyşehir
Bucak, Tuba; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Trolle, Dennis; Department of Biology (2017)
In this thesis, the main aim was to predict the impacts of climatic and land use changes on the ecosystem structure of Lake Beyşehir with the perspective of ecosystem services. Modeling results revealed the sensitivity of ecological and hydrological dynamics of Lake Beyşehir to climatic changes. Climate change scenarios led to reductions in total inflow rates and water levels, and the results showed that significant reductions in water abstraction are needed to maintain the lake in the future. The outcomes ...
Impacts of eutrophication and climate change on phytoplankton community structure, size diversity, and phytoplankton based ecological status
Erdoğan, Şeyda; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Demir, Ayşe Nilsun; Department of Biology (2016)
The aim of this thesis is to investigate the effects of climate change and eutrophication on phytoplankton; community structure, mean size, mean variance in size and water quality with two main approaches: i) Space-for-time substitute approach by using snap-shot sampling in 47 from 42 N to 32 N latitude of Turkey. ii) Mesocosm experiment through latitudinal gradient in six countries (Sweden, Estonia, Germany, Czech Republic, Greece and Turkey) using nutrient temperature and depth as main parameters. Mean ph...
Effects of climate change on water resources in Ömerli basin
Kara, Fatih; Yücel, İsmail; Akyürek, Sevda Zuhal; Department of Geodetic and Geographical Information Technologies (2014)
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on water resources through precipitation and discharge analyses in Omerli catchment Istanbul, Turkey. Precipitation and temperature data are obtained from GCM (Global Circulation Model)/RCM (Regional Climate Model) combinations based on A1B carbon scenario via Europen Union (EU)-ENSEMBLESproject. The data is obtained at 25 km resolution on daily time scale for reference period between 1960 and 1990 and future period between 2071 and 2100. The HBV (Hydrol...
Climate change and future proofing infrastructure: Etimesgut, Ankara case study
Oruç, Sertaç; Yılmaz, Ayşen; Yücel, İsmail; Department of Earth System Science (2018)
This study examines the potential impacts of climate change and land use/cover change; investigates how to incorporate these changes into urban stormwater network design. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for the (1950-2015 period) observed data and projections (2015-2098 period) for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales and used for future period the analysis. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme ...
Citation Formats
M. U. Atay, “The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2015.