The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries

Download

index.pdf

Date

2015

Author

Atay, Mehmet Ufuk

Metadata

Show full item record

Item Usage Stats

408
views

180
downloads

The aim of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agriculture for Mediterranean countries by employing vulnerability and econometric analysis. At first step, a composite agricultural vulnerability index is created by principal component analysis (PCA) for Mediterranean counties and world’s top 35 cereal producer countries. Then, based on index scores, countries are grouped by cluster analysis. Several indicators are selected from different international databases according to three components of vulnerability which are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity by assessing the related previous studies, examining the relevancy of indicators with food security and data availability from the international sources. As a second step, econometric analysis is conducted for clustered country groups obtained from the vulnerability index development part of the study. Panel ARDL method for pooled mean group (PMG), mean group (MG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimators is applied to clusters for three mostly harvested crop in Mediterranean region which are wheat, maize and potato. The novelty of this study is based on the methodology applied to determine the impact of climate change on crops. As a result, it is suggested that North African countries are more vulnerable to climate change in agriculture than South European countries due to their low adaptive capacity level. Another finding is that selected crops are more influenced from temperature in the long run when compared to impact of precipitation. An increase in temperature by 1% for cluster-1 and cluster-2 countries leads to decline in 0.3% and increase in 1.1% in wheat yield; 0.36% and 0.67% decline in maize yield, rise in about 2.0% and 2.8% in potato yield, respectively. Further, output of this study helps policy makers to measure and understand better the degree of risk to climate change and implement appropriate regulations for the agricultural sector.

Subject Keywords

Climatic changes., Agriculture, Crops, Agricultural ecology.

URI

http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12619319/index.pdf
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/25215

Collections

Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Thesis

Suggestions

OpenMETU
Core

Climate change, agriculture and trade policy: CGE analyses at regional, national and global level Dudu, Hasan; Gaygısız Lajunen, Esma; Department of Economics (2013) This thesis investigates the effects of climate change on the Turkish economy by using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models at regional, national and global level. The physical impact of climate change is first translated into yield and irrigation requirement shocks by using a crop-hydrology model developed for this study. Then these are introduced into the CGE models as productivity shocks to investigate their effects on the overall economy. Simulation results suggest that climate change will come i...
Impacts of eutrophication and climate change on phytoplankton community structure, size diversity, and phytoplankton based ecological status Erdoğan, Şeyda; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Demir, Ayşe Nilsun; Department of Biology (2016) The aim of this thesis is to investigate the effects of climate change and eutrophication on phytoplankton; community structure, mean size, mean variance in size and water quality with two main approaches: i) Space-for-time substitute approach by using snap-shot sampling in 47 from 42 N to 32 N latitude of Turkey. ii) Mesocosm experiment through latitudinal gradient in six countries (Sweden, Estonia, Germany, Czech Republic, Greece and Turkey) using nutrient temperature and depth as main parameters. Mean ph...
Roles of domestic and international factors in climate change policy making Koşan, Ezgi; Tanrısever, Oktay Fırat; Department of International Relations (2019) This thesis maps domestic and international factors which are influential on the international climate change politics of countries. Moreover, it seeks an answer to the question of “why domestic factors such as climate change vulnerability and policy readiness are not sufficient to explain the climate change policies of countries?” Based on the review of the existing literature and research of this dissertation, the main argument of the thesis will be as follows: Contrary to the views considering the primac...
The Impacts of climate change and land use on the ecosystem structure and services of Lake Beyşehir Bucak, Tuba; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Trolle, Dennis; Department of Biology (2017) In this thesis, the main aim was to predict the impacts of climatic and land use changes on the ecosystem structure of Lake Beyşehir with the perspective of ecosystem services. Modeling results revealed the sensitivity of ecological and hydrological dynamics of Lake Beyşehir to climatic changes. Climate change scenarios led to reductions in total inflow rates and water levels, and the results showed that significant reductions in water abstraction are needed to maintain the lake in the future. The outcomes ...
Adaptation to Climate Change in Industry: Improving Resource Efficiency through Sustainable Production Applications Alkaya, Emrah; Bogurcu, Merve; Ulutas, Ferda; Demirer, Göksel Niyazi (2015-01-01) The objective of this study was to investigate the climate change adaptation opportunities of six companies from different sectors through resource efficiency and sustainable production. A total of 77 sustainable production options were developed for the companies based on the audits conducted. After screening these opportunities with each company's staff, 19 options were selected and implemented. Significant water savings (849,668 m(3)/year) were achieved as a result of the applications that targeted reduc...

Citation Formats

M. U. Atay, “The Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries,” Ph.D. - Doctoral Program, Middle East Technical University, 2015.