Evaluating wider impacts of transport using an integrated urban CGE model

Yılmaz, Özhan
This study follows the literature that utilizes a more hybrid approach to grasp the heterogeneity among different agents in an urban context. Such an integrated approach can handle impacts of transport policies comprehensively, while simultaneously capturing the behavioural heterogeneity of different agents. This is achieved by adding model components capturing key theoretical elements of discrete choice theory into an applied general equilibrium model. “Full integration”, where all blocks of models run simultaneously to find an equilibrium, makes distinct this study from the similar ones. After testing the proposed model using a pseudo data set, and different household categorisation settings and scenarios, I applied it to evaluate effects of London’s planned Crossrail 2 project, which aims at connecting North and South London rail systems. I used London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) micro-data in the analysis. Model results show that rental price would increase significantly in certain boroughs (Waltham Forest, Merton, Barnet, Enfield and Kingston upon Thames) where the project improves the public transport accessibility. The total increase in public transport ridership by 32,280 leads to a 6 per cent increase the public transport use in commuting. Model results show that number of households in boroughs, in which public transport accessibility is improved due to the Crossrail 2 project, increases while central boroughs lose a considerable number of households to these boroughs. Leaving aside the innovation it offers, the key outcome of this study is the required accumulation of knowledge and motivation for future studies in fully-integrated urban CGE models. Findings of this research and newly introduced approaches and methods can be used to develop a more comprehensive model employing all the capabilities of CGE and urban transport modelling.