End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps

Download
2010-01-01
Rose, Kenneth A.
Allen, J. Icarus
Artioli, Yuri
Barange, Manuel
Blackford, Jerry
Carlotti, Francois
Cropp, Roger
Daewel, Ute
Edwards, Karen
Flynn, Kevin
Hill, Simeon L.
HilleRisLambers, Reinier
Huse, Geir
Mackinson, Steven
Megrey, Bernard
Moll, Andreas
Rivkin, Richard
Salihoğlu, Barış
Schrum, Corinna
Shannon, Lynne
Shin, Yunne-Jai
Smith, S. Lan
Smith, Chris
Solidoro, Cosimo
St John, Michael
Zhou, Meng
There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts.
MARINE AND COASTAL FISHERIES

Suggestions

Interactive Effects of Lake Morphometry and Sticklebacks on the Trophic Position of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) across Lakes in Western Greenland
Arranz, Ignasi; Davidson, Thomas Alexander; Benejam, Lluís; Brucet, Sandra; Sánchez-Hernández, Javier; Landkildehus, Frank; Lauridsen, Torben; Mazzeo, Nestor; Vidal, Nicolas; Özkan, Korhan; Gallego, Irene; Wischnewski, Juliane; Menezes, Rosemberg; Shurkhuu, Tserenpil; Jeppesen, Erik (2022-01-01)
The structure and functioning of Arctic ecosystems have been drastically modified by global warming, with fish species potentially performing habitat shifts such as the northern expansion of generalist and warm-adapted species. The freshwater fish species Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus, hereafter charr) plays a key role in Arctic lake food webs, but sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) may impact the trophic position (TP) of charr by affecting their habitat choice and food resources. In the present study...
Adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on European freshwater ecosystems (REFRESH)
Beklioğlu, Meryem(2014-1-31)
Understanding how freshwater ecosystems will respond to future climate change is essential for the development of policies and implementation strategies needed to protect aquatic and riparian ecosystems. The future status of freshwater ecosystems is however, also dependent on changes in land-use, pollution loading and water demand. In addition the measures that need to be taken to restore freshwater ecosystems to good ecological health or to sustain priority species as required by EU Directives need to be d...
Climate change impacts on primary production and economically important fish stocks in the Black Sea
Küçükavşar, Selin; Yılmaz, Ayşen; Ercan, Hakan; Department of Earth System Science (2013)
Coastal urbanization, heavy nutrient/pollutant loads due to intense anthropogenic activities and unsustainable fisheries have been threatening life-support system of marine environment and getting more drastic with the climatic variations and its impacts. Changes in sea surface temperatures and related dynamical processes have been threatening bottom-up / top-down control of marine food webs via variations in primary production and changes in biogeographic and temporal responses of thermophilic species. All...
Macroecological Patterns of Resilience Inferred from a Multinational, Synchronized Experiment
Baho, Didier L.; Tavsanoglu, Ulku Nihan; Sorf, Michal; Stefanidis, Kostantinos; Drakare, Stina; Scharfenberger, Ulrike; Agasild, Helen; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Hejzlar, Josef; Adrian, Rita; Papastergiadou, Eva; Zingel, Priit; Sondergaard, Martin; Jeppesen, Erik; Angeler, David G. (2015-02-01)
The likelihood of an ecological system to undergo undesired regime shifts is expected to increase as climate change effects unfold. To understand how regional climate settings can affect resilience; i.e., the ability of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbances without changing its original structure and processes, we used a synchronized mesocosm experiment (representative of shallow lakes) along a latitudinal gradient. We manipulated nutrient concentrations and water levels in a synchronized mesocosm experimen...
European Union Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration (EURO-BASIN)
Salihoğlu, Barış(2014-12-30)
EURO-BASIN is designed to advance our understanding on the variability, potential impacts, and feedbacks of global change and anthropogenic forcing on the structure, function and dynamics of the North Atlantic and associated shelf sea ecosystems as well as the key species influencing carbon sequestering and ecosystem functioning. The ultimate goal of the program is to further our capacity to manage these systems in a sustainable manner following the ecosystem approach. Given the scope and the international ...
Citation Formats
K. A. Rose et al., “End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps,” MARINE AND COASTAL FISHERIES, pp. 115–130, 2010, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/30040.