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Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates
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Date
2019-01-01
Author
Alberiko Gil-Alana, Luis
ÖZDEMİR, ZEYNEL ABİDİN
Tansel, Aysıt
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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License
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In this article we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in the majority of the cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and persistence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban, and youth unemployment series. The possibility of nonlinearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Thus, for example, positive shocks reducing unemployment will have permanent effects being good for the economy, but negative shocks increasing unemployment will also have permanent effects and strong measures should then be adopted to reduce it. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long-lasting effects on the unemployment rates.
Subject Keywords
Unemployment
,
Hysteresis
,
NAIRU
,
Fractional
,
Integration
,
Turkey
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11511/31446
Journal
EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2018.1425837
Collections
Graduate School of Social Sciences, Article
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BibTeX
L. Alberiko Gil-Alana, Z. A. ÖZDEMİR, and A. Tansel, “Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates,”
EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 201–217, 2019, Accessed: 00, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11511/31446.